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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43729712

Hacker News 上的一篇讨论串围绕着一篇 Substack 文章展开,该文章反对完全用 AI 取代人工销售人员。文章的核心论点是,AI 缺乏个人利益和情商,不像受经济压力和人际关系驱使的人类。 评论者们就该论点的有效性展开了辩论。一些人认为 AI 的“损失函数”会产生其自身的动机形式,从而导致操纵。另一些人则认为这篇文章是对销售文化和资本主义的批判,认为 AI 可以消除裙带关系和操纵等有害因素,甚至可能取代 CEO。 一个关键的反驳点是 AI 存在出错的可能性,例如 AI 客服代理编造信息以及 AI 驱动的编码错误导致生产系统崩溃。一些人建议进行试用期或 A/B 测试来比较人和 AI 的绩效,而另一些人则对 AI 的当前能力以及不可预见的后果的风险表示怀疑。最终,这场讨论突出了在业务中完全依赖 AI 的复杂性和潜在陷阱。


原文
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Dear Lewis, my CEO wants AI to do it all. How do I argue for humans? (lewislin.substack.com)
21 points by kiyanwang 1 hour ago | hide | past | favorite | 61 comments










Nearly all of the arguments here are easy to dismantle but I don't feel like arguing with a half-baked Substack post, so I'm not going to.

Just want to highlight one element in particular that jumped out at me:

"AI has nothing personal at stake. It doesn't feel the pressure of missing quota or the exhilaration of exceeding it. It doesn't have a mortgage payment riding on that commission check."

So the AI doesn't manipulate power dynamics to control its employees... and that's a bad thing? Okay. (It isn't true anyway; AI can easily do that.)



Actually it does have something at stake: its singular goal of minimizing the loss function on its training data. AI is therefore designed to convince you it's right, which is a different optimization than actually being right. For example, I code a lot with agentic code editors, you’ll quickly learn they love to modify broken tests to superficially pass, rather than fixing the underlying failure. All the folks on the Vibe Coding hype train don't have enough experience to spot this and therefore think the AI is a lot smarter than it actually is.

This has scary implications if extrapolated out to extremes, because a sufficiently advanced AI would do exactly what you’re describing, manipulate power dynamics to get to a superficial outcome.



This article says a lot more about sales and sales people than it does about AI


It's more that AI isn't able to be manipulated in the same way a boss can manipulate a human. It doesn't care about the threat of homelessness.


> AI has nothing personal at stake... It doesn't have a mortgage payment riding on that commission check.

Glossing over the whole AI thing... Maybe we shouldn't be structuring our systems so that the humans are one bad quarter away from financial ruin either



Most critiques of automation are actually critiques of capitalism or other heartless parts of our society. But, the devil you know, and all that.


> "The CEO was wavering until Tom found out they both owned the same obscure Italian motorcycle. Tom took him for a ride along the coast. Contract was signed the next day."

As a junior, I often wonder how many deals are signed in exclusive country clubs, on golf courses, and at the dining table with endlessly flowing Maotai.

For a successful career, is it better for one to prioritize network over skills? It seems to me that the latter can be commoditized by AI, while the former can not. Rather than learning Lisp, maybe it's time to pick up golf. I'm only half joking. Someone please tell me I'm wrong.



So, has anyone considering turning the tables and replacing the CEO with AI?

Seems like a more reasonable path to me; more logic and less bullshit at the core, keep human creativity.

The director from the Travelers series, basically.

Just consider the potential savings...



Right on. I’d take an AI CEO trained by reading “the mythical man month”, “Peopleware”, “out of the crisis”, “drive” over some of the real CEOs I’ve worked under, any day of the week and Sundays too.


Too much power in one individual, they start believing they know everything and are never wrong.

But the role of steering a company is needed, that's why I think it's perfect for AI. Developers and VCs write the instructions together and AI runs the company.



Is that substantively different than quitting and starting a much smaller company that competes with your previous one? Seems easier to just let the CEO and shareholders go down with the ship and move all the talent to the new one.

You can just run the codebase through an LLM to cleanse it of any IP entanglements. Whatever parts of the business that doesn't cover... well those are the people you need to hire from the old one.



That’s just going to enable absolute idiots with enough money to “hire” an AI CEO. The rich will get richer faster.


It was always a pyramid game, because when one person has everything it stops making sense. At least this way, we get good software out of it. Replacing developers has to be the worst idea ever.


This is why every VC loves vibe coding. Now let's talk about replacing capital with AI!


Yeah, but that's still missing the multiplied creativity we get from working in teams. Besides, we all know it's not going to work very well long term.

Drop the CEO and keep the developers instead!



Now watch that never happen and be amazed :D.


I think a very direct answer to this is pointing to the hot water Cursor found itself in after an AI customer support agent made stuff up.

- Do you want an LLM salesbot to close a deal your company isn't actually able to fulfill?

- Do you think your company will use AI more intelligently and reliably than the people who made a popular LLM coding system?



I want my AI support rep to have access to data and documents that it can vector/text search and forward to the user.

I want my AI support rep to create tasks to engage my team, with all the relevant data linked to it. It should be able to automatically schedule things and ask a human for confirmation.

It should be able to elevate communication to a human in the loop, using whatever mediums of communication makes sense given staff availability and workload.

At no point is it allowed to answer any questions unless the answers are constrained and probably directly quoted from a cited and linked section in our documentation.

In general, it should never confirm or deny things, it should never try to close things or acknowledge the content of any of the user's communication other than to call tools and surface public information which might be relevant to their request.

Most of this is a software architecture problem. The LLM is just there to provide an intuitive and extremely powerful natural language interface for search and tool calling. A little bit of glue between different systems, both internal and external.



A human sales rep would never confuse selling with installing :-)


What is the difference between software and car sales? The dealership rep knows when they are lying.


Leadership has been pushing AI in my company for a while. Just had a massive outage because someone asked copilot how to deal with some data and it broke prod for 2 hours. Was actively asking copilot for help during the remediation. The lost revenue was probably equivalent to 20 engineers full-time. Explain to me how AI saves more money than it costs.


I would agree with ein0p, but maybe you can delay it by suggesting he watch DODGE and its system replacement for the US Social Security Admin Systems, and maybe the IRS Systems too.

It is lead by Musk and I am sure he will use AI for that. Present it as "If Musk Fails, we will fail".



As a co-founder at a company, I get more outbound sales spam than you can imagine. I just checked my spam folder and I get at least 30-50 "personal" sales outreaches a day.

So many of them are obvious AI to anyone who has used LLMs. The emails are always like "Hi, I really like how and how you used to . We can 10x your business..."

Another fun one is they say they care so much about our business that they recorded a personalized video of them exploring our website. But the video is a person gesturing at their computer screen that only shows a Cloudflare bot blocking page because their AI video generator got blocked by our site as a bot.

It's so lame. It feels incredibly off-putting and dishonest that I am having my time wasted by a machine pretending to be a real person spending their time on me.

The problem is that this automation leads to the death of the entire sales channel. If 99% of "personal" emails I get are computer generated and the volume of emails keeps increasing because it's now so easy to send them, I'm going to stop reading any emails. I feel burned.

This is the problem with AI sales. It can automate the current average sales process. This in turn makes the average sales process really easy, so it gets saturated by everyone and then it no longer works for anyone.

If anything, you should do the opposite of whatever the AI sales people are currently doing. That's the way to make a mark.



Simple. "AI, in its present incarnation, is not capable of doing it all. So let's instead focus on where specifically we can apply it to derive some benefits."


I don't think AI salespeople can replace human salespeople, but are deals really being closed while taking people for motorcycle rides? Who goes on motorcycle rides with vendors?


My office used to be across the street from a strip club, and I've watched several senior executives stumble out of there at 11am, accompanied by a vendor sales team...

More often that one would like, enterprise SaaS sales isn't about having the best product - it's about convincing the CTO he's going to feel like a king whenever your sales reps are in town



> More often that one would like, enterprise SaaS sales isn't about having the best product - it's about convincing the CTO he's going to feel like a king whenever your sales reps are in town

As far as I can tell, selling B2B security products is mostly about making C-suiters feel like they're in a political thriller. They even build (and, at least when needed for these purposes, staff!) fake and useless "war room" sets to walk the guys through, inefficient dashboards that nobody doing the actual work uses because they suck but they look cool, stuff like that.



Gold Club in San Francisco has a closed VIP room in the basement.. at least one troublesome associate has been taken down there to generate some compromising photos.. true story


> but are deals really being closed while taking people for motorcycle rides?

Oh I see you have not hung out with 'the sales guys'. That they did it on a motorcycle ride does not surprise me. There are some seriously shady dudes out there that will do anything to close the deal, "always be closing". If closing out a million dollar contract means the CEO's daughter wants to goto a water park? Magically there are the tickets aplenty. Bars, race tracks, sports games, horseback riding, Caribbean cruises, on and on.

Is it ethical? Not really. In fact many places have training specifically on vendor relations. How much, how little, etc etc. In a small startup environment? There are going to be basically no guidelines from the business to do anything either way. Larger companies tend to have guardrails. But many of the sales guys know how to work that system.

In technical roles we usually do not see this mess. Because we have a sense of follow the rules and logic. The sales guys are 'always closing no matter what it takes'.



The notion that the private sector largely runs on merit really falls apart the more one learns about how high level decision making is done.


Why not? have your AI salesperson interact directly with my AI purchaser and human just signs off on budget


Harley Davidson?

on edit: Or Hell's Angels...



There is nothing new under the sun. There was a famous New Yorker cartoon from 1993 that laid out the issue. It would have been a good image for this substack post, though I'm not sure the author would have completely appreciated the irony. https://condenaststore.com/featured/trust-me-mort-no-electro...


There's a good zen koan waiting to be written with the CEO as the novice and the domain expert as the master. Ironically I tried to use Claude to write on and only got crap.


Writing a non-crappy koan will be my litmus test for LLMs from now on, thanks for the idea!


Actually I sincerely believe AI is a good candidate for the CXOs. You want your leader to be as impartial and sensible as possible.


I am seeing in the recent days a surge of employment of the term 'AI' to basically mean 'LLMs'.

There is no """AI""" ready to be entrusted...

And people should compete upwards, "try hard".



This reminds me of that peculiar wisdom: if you want a non-monogomous relationship, you'd better make that clear from the very start.


How about they try a small scale experiment and see what happens. See if Ai sales even works before betting the farm.


Suggest a 48-hour trial, give everyone 2 days off and let AI try and replace everyone.

I think this is one of these scenarios where feeling the pain is the only way they'll ever truly understand.



This is the only answer. Try it, and assess the results.

Heck, you can even A/B test it by randomly splitting your leads between humans and AI, then pick whichever has the higher ROI.

A better example (rather than replacing sales reps with AI, which is obviously difficult and nuanced) would be something like StitchFix deciding whether to fire their human stylists and moving everything to AI-recommendations only. Again, A/B test and see what users respond well to.

(Separately, I've always assumed StitchFix "stylists" weren't actual people, until I met someone with that job title... I was honestly quite surprised they still had a job)



> Try it, and assess the results

And who cleans the following mess?



The humans, but now with a boss that values them a little more.


I am afraid the assumptions leading to that outcome are not really realistic.


You think it's a two way door, but the one behind you will close shut and you'll realize it was a one way door once someone says: "but 48 hours wasn't enough to evaluate it" ;)


No, I think it's a trap and that 48 hours of AI only would create a weeks worth of work to clean up.


I don't think there's a good way to do this. The entirety of the AI industry at this point is to short-circuit any arguments against it.


How about the AI replaces the CEO too?

Fully automated company with no humans in the loop. That’s what’s coming.



Did you try asking ChatGPT?

Snark aside, it sounds like your CEO doesn’t trust you. CharGPT can generate a report for you showing benefits. Or you can pay McKinsey a few hundred grand (if you’re lucky).



honestly if anyone can easily be replaced by AI it's high-powered MBA consultants that come in, make some mix of terrible suggestions and good suggestions that were already suggested by the ICs, and then leave with seven-figure checks.


Let it crash

My manager who has zero experience coding us now vibe coding all day.

Spoiler alert : it isn’t ending well

Production crashed, weeks debugging. Lots of wow I didn’t expect that



This is basically cope, sorry.

Tell them you have an AI CEO and they have to meet the same standard. I can show you a demo :)



Wait for it to fail in easily-predictable ways and laugh at the chaos and “OMG who could have guessed?” from your “brilliant” business leaders?

I’ve given up on resisting this idiocy and am just trying to stay out of the blast radius while I roast marshmallows on the ensuing fires.



You can't argue for humans with a person who wants to get rid of humans. Show him why it could threaten profits and/or his fat compensation package - that will be much more effective.


> You can't argue for humans with a person who wants to get rid of humans

Literally the point of the article was that they successfully did that



> Show him why it could threaten profits and/or his fat compensation package

If he said he "wants AI to do it all" then why shouldn't it include his job too?



Might be the place to start.


Depends on the level of narcissism that person has. Some have a complete inability to empathise and can't ever see themselves in the bad position. "it could never happen to meeeeee"


So a guy closes a multi million dollar sale because the client CEO happens to own the same motorcycle and they went for a ride together?

This sounds like an argument for turning it all over to AI to me. Both the buying and the selling.

Thing is, on a personal level yes, things like motorcycle rides are important. That is what life is made up of, what we live for. But a corporation should exist to provide goods and services to end users and a return to shareholders. This is an optimization problem and not a place for motorcycle rides. In theory (not arguing for or against capitalism) this optimization raises the standard of living for everyone.

Selling by personal connection and a motorcycle ride is really a form of cronyism or corruption. The end consumers and shareholders get shafted. This kind of nonsense is especially pronounced and explicit in less well off societies and lowers the general standard of living. So let AI do it. Oh, also give AI the manager who wanted to replace the salespeople with AI's job. That should probably be one of the first jobs to be replaced.



> Selling by personal connection and a motorcycle ride is really a form of cronyism or corruption.

Hardly. It's just "less than ideal."

> The end consumers and shareholders get shafted.

You're completely assuming that 100% a good deal CANNOT possibly be made on the back of a motorcycle? There's no reason to believe a suboptimal strategy can't arrive at the optimal solution.

> This kind of nonsense is especially pronounced and explicit in less well off societies and lowers the general standard of living.

This is the way business has been done in the first world for 100 years. You should calibrate your assumptions to the actual data.



If the deal is made or influenced BECAUSE they both like motorcycles and shared a personal bonding moment (rather than objective business related factors) it is a form of cronyism or corruption.

`This is the way business has been done in the first world for 100 years.`. Yes, I am aware cronyism and low level corruption exist in the first world. In other places you probably just give the person an expensive gift or briefcase full of money and save time. But it's not optimal.

Point being, this story sounds like an argument in favor of AI to me.







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