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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43758936

这篇 Hacker News 帖子讨论了一篇 Substack 文章,文章中介绍了一篇新的论文(METR),预测人工智能的快速发展。第一个评论批评了原文中认为软件工程易于测试从而加速了人工智能进步的论点,暗示作者缺乏编程经验。他们认为,现实世界中的任务由于其混乱性和低反馈性,对人工智能来说更具挑战性。第二个评论回复了一个 xkcd 漫画的链接。

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  • 原文
    Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login
    Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration (peterwildeford.substack.com)
    9 points by nopinsight 1 hour ago | hide | past | favorite | 2 comments










    > This is important because I would guess that software engineering skills overestimate total progress on AGI because software engineering skills are easier to train than other skills. This is because they can be easily verified through automated testing so models can iterate quite quickly. This is very different from the real world, where tasks are messy and involve low feedback — areas that AI struggles on

    Tell me you've never coded without telling me you've never coded.



    And by 2035, AI will be able to complete tasks that would take millennia for humans to complete.

    https://xkcd.com/605/







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