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原始链接: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39241113

对困惑感到抱歉。 “安装”的含义如下:特指该系外行星在宜居安装框架 (HIF) 下的分类,该框架由 David Kipping 博士及其同事开发,发表在上文引用的先前研究文章中(HIF 在第 1 节中讨论) https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1038/s4151-01210-2/meta 的 4)。 该框架根据系外行星候选者由于系统架构、仪器性能和恒星活动水平等各种因素而成为误报 (FP) 或非误报 (non-FP) 的概率进行分类。 标记为装置的类别表示,鉴于其一组观测特性,给定的行星已通过后续观测经历了多个确认阶段,增加了其成为真正的岩石行星候选者的可能性。 HIF 的具体细节在提到的文章中提供。

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A 1.55 R⊕ habitable-zone planet hosted by TOI-715 (oup.com)
237 points by taubek 1 day ago | hide | past | favorite | 114 comments










No idea when NASA put this up [1] but it's awesome. It's the basic data on the system as well as some pretty nicely done visualizations including the ability overlay our solar system for scale. Quite interesting actually seeing what a dramatic difference the star type makes on habitable distances. This planet is way closer to its star than Mercury is the Sun, for instance. They could do with a lot more advertising for stuff like this, and not quite so much for dronecopters.

[1] - https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/exoplanet-catalog/8921/toi-715-b...



The retro graphics here are gorgeous: https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/alien-worlds/exoplanet-travel-bu...

(Stellar, one could say.)



I think they are out of this world myself.

The guided tours are interesting. I've mentioned this before, but I am very jealous of this kind of content available for school kids. We had the slide shows with a tape recording with the unforgettable tone to signal to switch to the next slide. We had crappy VHS copies instead of the 8mm film projector, but I'm not sure it was an improvement. All of this interactive material is just so much more immersive.



Have you seen the stuff that's available in VR these days? It's not just space, too; e.g. here's a pretty engaging game that happens to explain how biological cells work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Exii5RPxMH8


When Costco still did printing we printed serval of those out as posters and hung them up in the kid’s bathroom. The designs are pretty timeless and are fun to daydream about.


There was a awesome book filled to the brim with paintings of other worlds.

Cycles of fire



NASA has provided some very compelling visualizations of data over the years. One of my favorites is the meteor showers showing where the debris fields for each one are located within the solar system. You can see the original orbit of the comet that left the debris, where it currently is, when the Earth's orbit crosses the debris field, and just the overall size of the debris so that you can see why some meteor showers are "better" than others.

There's plenty of others where you can zoom in/out of the solar system to see the modeled view of the Oort cloud and get a sense of scale interactively of Sol's influence. There's also the interactive image viewers of Hubble and JWST data so we can see the differences between visible/IR spectrum. There are plenty of others as well. Oh, and the fact you can access so much of the raw data to make your own visualizations as you like.

Overall, I think my tax dollars are performing nicely for my interests.



> Overall, I think my tax dollars are performing nicely for my interests.

And for the future scientists and engineers who get exposed to this at an early age!



I dont know the intricacies of stellar physics, but my understand that smaller cooler stars are less stable. Despite an average temperature that is habitable, the variability and EM environment is not suitable for an atmosphere.

Edit: 1) proximity also leads these planets to be tidally locked, which some argue is not conducive to habitability, though I don't find that especially compelling.

2) The local EM environment and solar flares would not preclude sub-surface habitability, but that is true for planets outside of what we consider the habitable zone as well. e.g. life on Europa has been hypothesized, but it is FAR outside the suns habitable zone.



It looks quite a bit bigger than Earth.

I don't think anyone will be leaving that atmosphere with chemical propulsion any time soon...



I learned something today :)

Gravity on surface of this planet will be 3(times heavier than earth)/(1.55(radius)^2), so 1.25g, however escape velocity also depends on planet radius so we get sqrt(1.55 * 1.25) = 1.4 earths escape velocity (so 15.7km/s). Assuming Isp specific impulse of engine of around 300s, let's compute m0/mf (initial mass of rocket / payload) = exp(vEsc/(Isp*g0)) (g0=9.8m/s^2 (on both planets)):

For earth, it's 45.

For this planet, it's 208.

So, the rocket (using our current chemical engine technology) needs 4.6 times more fuel than on earth. Much more difficult, but maybe possible...

edit: formatting



We also have to consider the thickness of the atmosphere. I presume a planet with 1.5x the radius of Earth and 3x the gravity would have an atmosphere that is far more thick and any rocket would have to contend with a significant amount of drag.

Plus, if it would take something like a Saturn V just to put the mass of a potato into low orbit I could easily envision an extraterrestrial civilization thinking it wasn’t worth the cost to try.



Actually, the atmospheric drag is not a big challenge. Yes, it is a consideration of course, hence the payload fairing etc, but much larger problem going to orbit is getting speed.

That's why it doesn't really help much to launch rockets from a balloon -- getting there is not a problem.



> I presume a planet with 1.5x the radius of Earth and 3x the gravity would have an atmosphere that is far more thick and any rocket would have to contend with a significant amount of drag.

I'm sure that's true holding all else the same, but all else isn't the same.

Maybe it's airless due to stronger stellar winds.



Just because it's bigger doesn't mean that the gravity is higher.


Correct, but it’s mass (weight) is 3x higher than earth’s, and since gravity is proportional to mass, you’d likely be much heavier there. If the radius of the planet was the same as earth’s, the gravity would be 3x higher, but if it’s bigger than earth, it might not be as bad. The formula is g= m/r^2 , where m is the mass of the planet and r is the radius of the planet.


Damn I'm gonna have to get serious about that diet before visiting :'(


r^2 is around 2.3 for the alleged size so it won't be too big a difference.


The gravity on the surface should be 3,02÷(1,55^(2)) times the gravity on earth. It is equal to ~1.257 so it's about 25% higher.


Yeah, but look at its period:

>>>ts mass is 3.02 Earths, it takes 19.3 days to complete one orbit of its star, and is 0.083 AU from its star. Its discovery was announced in 2023

https://i.imgur.com/ghLnFrH.png

--

What would gravity be on that thing, it doesnt say what its circadian rhythm is.. so how long is a day, if a "year" is 19 earth days (or is the period in 'day' local-solar-system-days?)



Orbital period is in Earth days. The same as when we say the orbital period of Venus is 225 days even though a Venetian day is longer than that.

It'd be pretty messy to instead define things in the database in object relative terms, particularly when you usually know things like the orbital period with significantly more accuracy than rotational velocity.



Well yeah, Venus is in our solar system.

Thanks, though - I wasn’t sure if we always use a local reference but then au is as local a unit as possible at these scales.



It's probably tidally locked, so the day will be the same as the year.


”Its mass is 3.02 Earths.”


Right, but you also have to account for density when calculating surface gravity.

TOI-715 b has a log g value of 5.0 +/- 0.2. Earth is 2.992.



Good to know. Thanks!


See also the Jet Propulsion Lab’s gorgeous Visions of the Future posters:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/galleries/visions-of-the-future



The tool has been around in some form since 2007ish, though the latest update was probably within the last decade. The age probably being why it's not so heavily advertised anymore compared to new activities.

I've always been more partial to exoplanet.eu though: https://exoplanet.eu/catalog/toi_715_b--8668/. It's not quite as prettied up but it's usually more practical in presentation.



I personally prefer the Caltech Exoplanet Archive, which has downloadable datasets, APIs, and also presents everything in one shot: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/


exoplanet.eu also has downloadable datasets (from CSV to database exports) and an API. The Exoplanet Archive is great if you need the exact e.g. photometry data every time though.


I like dronecopters!


0.083 AU means that its sun would be huge in its sky? But it's also smaller so maybe not...


In general, a lower temperature star (3075 K versus the sun at 5778 K) will appear larger in the sky on a habitable planet.


I'm getting about 3x the angular diameter of the Sun from Earth, so not particularly huge.


At 138 light years any intelligence in this system would start potentially receiving our radio signals in the next two decades. They’d need a massive radio telescope to hear them though since at that distance even the strongest signals would be extremely weak.


This was quite a bit more helpful than the paper itself, thanks.


Thanks, there's so many resources tucked away in obscure places that there's probably a dozen more cool things like this that never get noticed.


Over and over and over again planets are reported in habitable zones around flare stars just because they are easy to detect, not because they are actually habitable.


The entire notion of a 'habitable zone' is also very over-simplistic.

Europa is quite probably 'habitable'.



I wish habitability metrics would be more holistic, taking into account the star and orbit characteristics, how sun+earthlike they really are


> orbit characteristics

Also, our earth did propably produce complex life so well because of the moon stabilizing earths rotation and allowing more or less stable climate.

The mass ratio of moon/earth is comparably larger then other satellite systems, which, encorporated into the model of habitable zones, would make them much less common.

Also, jupiter has a significant role in shielding earth from asteriods. Another aspect of stability.

I agree, habitable zone is way more than just distance to star or enough gravity for an atmosphere and liquid water.



>just because they are easy to detect

Well, for some threshold of "easy" I guess.



True. It's tiresome that a technical definition is so often misinterpreted as actual habitability. The authors are also overly optimistic when they point out that the M4 class host star is relatively calm due to its age. That fact wouldn't matter much, though, if the first billion years of the star's existence have sterilized the planet and stripped off its atmosphere...


Maybe just come up with a better/different label for planets who share a similar ratio of planet-to-star characteristics with Earth, which is a sample size of known_to_support_life=1.

"Orbital Cousins to Earth" OCEs. Find the # of OCEs, and maybe we have finer granulation, Second Cousins have an atmosphere, Step-sisters have water and an OnlyPlanets account... (which seems to be making the rounds at Nasa)





Holy crap! I've never watched that show, but thats funny as heck that this was a thing. (and they even say "I don't have HydroStatic Equillibrium yet...) too funny is the Akashic Zeitgeist...


I always thought it to be funny if we would get faster than light travel in the future and other civilizations are just seeing dinosaurs roaming the earth the moment we visit them.


That would be if they were 70M LY away from us. In order to see dinosaurs from that distance, they would need a telescope wider than our solar system.


The Milkyway is 'only' 100 to 150,000 light years across, in total.


If you can make a dyson sphere, a solar system sized telescope doesn't seem out of the question.


Yes, once we're commanding autonomous little bots in space, capable of also autonomously creating their own factories, we can build anything on a whim as long as we can design it and have the energy and materials.

(I may have played too much Factorio)



All I want is logibots IRL, is that too much to ask


Harvesting that much material might be a challenge.

I guess you’d also have to build it in interstellar space to avoid planets and asteroids.



According to our current understanding of telescopes, but if FTL is possible, then perhaps we missed something.


If FTL is possible, we didn't just missed something, but can throw all of our physics books on fire.


Couldn't you just use a large solar gravitational lensing telescope?


I think at that point, you'd go find a really big black hole to use as a lens instead


What would even be the point of existence anymore once FTL is figured out? Just curious.

Seems like it would just remove any grandeur about the universe entirely.



The universe is infinite. FTL just makes it slightly less infinite.

FTL means we actually get to see the grandeur of the universe instead of hypothesizing mathematical models of it. Without FTL, we'll never leave this star system. The grandeur of the universe will be nothing but our imagination, instead of a real thing you can see with your own eyes.



I was explaining to my kids yesterday that it took 33 years for Voyager to leave the solar system, the next closes star is 2,000x further than it’s already travelled. That would require infrastructure to support 100 generations of humans, 99 of which would be indentured by their ancestors to a life stuck inside a space-ark. And it would only require one of those generations to fail for the whole endeavor to fail. And there’s nothing there, it would take another 50 generations to get to what is hypothesized to be a habitable planet.

Human existence doesn’t scale to inter-star system travel.



That's why I choose to believe that FTL will be possible at some point. Otherwise we may as well be the only life in the universe, the rest is dead and pointless. If we can't leave our solar system, our entire universe may as well just be our local system and everything else is just neat wallpaper.

My money is on a quantum theory of gravity unlocking the ability to cheaply warp space.



The Voyager is nowhere near max speed, nor is current biological age the final limit on human life span. If you survive another 500 million years or so, you might meet some aliens then. https://grabbyaliens.com/

If FTL were possible, causality breaks too. Plus if there's other life out there who have discovered FTL, we shouldn't even be here. Don't get your hopes up for more than a tiny portion of the universe ever being explorable.



I don't buy the causality argument, it's based on the same incomplete physics that tell us FTL is impossible.

Besides, that only applies to truly superluminal velocities, it doesn't hold for other forms of travel like wormholes or warp engines.



How big of a lunatic would our great-great-great grandparents have considered us for telling them that soon the several-month trip across the USA will pretty soon take an afternoon, and going to the moon will take 3 days?

Sure, traveling at Voyager’s (impressive, but essentially wagon) speed won’t get it done. But betting against technological advancement has made fools of a vast many.



Generally it's taken for granted that the technological problems with generation ships can be solved with sufficient time and resources. We can probably build a metal box that lasts for a thousand years. We can probably design a sustainable closed ecosystem. We could probably build fusion reactors that run on interstellar hydrogen collected with ramscoops.

But the real problem with generation ships is not technological. Technology can't solve the fundamental social and psychological problems of locking some humans in a box for a hundred generations. That's the most important problem, and the one that's usually waved away with "oh you just can't imagine future technology"



You'd probably need to create a religion for them about some gods/ancients that they are serving in their mission. That seems to be how humans stay focused on long-term social organization across generations.


See the Mormon generation ship in The Expanse: https://expanse.fandom.com/wiki/Nauvoo_(Books)

They were intending to use the ship to get to the Tau Ceti system: https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/exoplanet-catalog/7179/tau-ceti-...

Mormonism seems well-suited for the religion role you mention since they have the concept of a particular planet being close to the residence of their god: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolob





Or modify them genetically making them biological robots. Or create artificial humanoids similar to Abh: https://seikai.fandom.com/wiki/Abh


I see someone's read Project Hail Mary


I have, but wasn’t thinking of it consciously. They at least had a plan to get back and not reproduce along the way.


Remove any grandeur? On the contrary, it would be the beginning of a new era of appreciating its grandeur.


On the contrary, nothing would make me excited about existence more than knowing our limits have vastly expanded. Less of unknown, sure. But unimaginably more of grand human civilization, knowledge, diversity...


Does the fact that you can drive to a national park make it stop being beautiful?


It wouldn’t go away. It would just mean we could go see it.


"point of existence"

To go see it.

Why would the ability to visit other planets, and see them, suddenly negate the point of existence, since we can then go see it.

Like there is only a point if things can only be imagined, and not actually seen.

That would be like. "now that cars exists, and we can visit the Grand Canyon, suddenly there is no point of existence".



The mention of planet's "installation," in the abstract and repeatedly throughout the article, I have found very confusing. The reference to Kopparapu et al. (2013) has no mention of the term whatsoever. I have found a mention of "instellation" from one of the authors working with Kopparapu [1]. Instellation, indeed, is, according to Wiki, "a generalization of insolation to stars other than the sun," which makes sense in this context.

I wonder if I am missing anything - given it's in MNRAS already - or this is likely an artifact of auto-correction.

[1] https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.P21C1675D/abstra...



I don't have necessary knowledge to explain this, yet while using gpt4 to help me parse the abstract, gpt4 without missing a heartbeat, changed it to "Insolation refers to the amount of stellar energy a planet receives on its surface. The value "0.67s" indicates that TOI-715 b receives 67% of the solar energy Earth receives from the Sun. "

Wiki ref check: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance



It is 42.46 parsecs away, or about 140 light years. If the Founding Fathers had beamed to those guys the Declaration of Independence, we'd get their congratulations in about 30 years from now. Hopefully. Maybe they decide to side with the King, and they'll send an invasion force to help general Cornwallis.


It doesn't seem like it would take much to make Earth inhabitable for us humans. Like if we wanted to we can do it pretty quickly using primitive methods. It's a very delicate system and we're completely reliant on it.

So it is a stretch for me to think there are even a few planets in the galaxy that could host human life as we know it.



Did you mean to say “uninhabitable”? If so, then I agree. Nuclear weapons are the first thing that comes to mind.


Yes, I meant to say “uninhabitable”


> Like if we wanted to we can do it pretty quickly using primitive methods.

It seems that even if we don't want it, we can't help but do it anyway.



The domain-specific notation in this paper is inscrutable to me. I assume that this means a possible "Minshara class" planet (as Gene would say) around a star much different than our own, in that the distance from its sun and insolation received don't rule it out?

EDIT: R⊕ appears to be something related to Earth. Perhaps a planetary radius?



⊕ is the symbol for earth. R⊕ is earth-radius, as you guessed.

It is domain-specific, so it should probably be changed in the title.

I will say that it is a very nice symbol - easy to write out by hand, makes for quick note-taking. Same for the symbol used for the sun (which isn't rendering for me, but is a circle with a dot in the middle).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_symbols



It's a planet that has 1.55 Earth's radius orbiting a much cooler star. Planets in the habitable zone are those that are at a distance from their star, such that they have the reasonable potential for liquid water to exist on the planet.


"Earth radius (denoted as R🜨 or R_E) ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_radius



  "The domain-specific notation in this paper is inscrutable to me."
That's almost every paper to me.


46 parsec is nearby to them? Well, it's relative obviously. That means many, many generations away.


What's 1500 years (at 0.1c) between friends?


So, surface gravity about twenty-five percent higher than that of Earth. We're looking at Antares-level of redness for color. Occupies a large portion of the sky. Good candidate for tidal lock, at which point a lot of the habitability issues become debatable.


"Good candidate for tidal lock, at which point a lot of the habitability issues become debatable."

A tidal locked planet might still allow life in the twilight zones.

But since this one is orbiting close to a flare star, life might have other problems there



They don't know the mass of the planet yet, so surface gravity is an unknown as of yet. The paper suggests two scenarios: a rocky world (~7 earth masses) or a water world (~2 earth masses).

Surface gravity would be 38m/s² for a rocky planet (~390% earth's surface gravity) and 8.2m/s² for a water world (~84% earth's surface gravity). I'm not an astronomer so I don't know if anything in between those values is a realistic scenario, but I wonder how you got your 125% of earth's surface gravity.



Another poster had something else from NASA, suggesting 1.55 Earth radii and 3.02 Earth masses.


I read somewhere, slightly higher than Earth gravity would actually be better for life. So on that metric this is interesting. Magnetic field is likely another need and our single large moon helps a lot here too.


I kind of despise these press releases because they almost never attempt to show anything other than what other astronomers might care about.

Surface gravity? I just computed that. Color temp? Had to check the ole memory banks.

They should be doing stuff like computing how much of the sky this sun occupies, so you could get a sense of it, with the color. Is it tidally locked? Or at least does it fit the criteria?

The distance, eccentricity (which here leaves the distance a constant), and temperature of the associated star could be used to give some kind of insolation number, and from there a very casual steady-state blackbody temperature of the planet, which is a start and is better than nothing. At that point you can start looking up what gases would stay and which would go as kind of a maximum before you started thinking about stellar winds and the like.



In such a planet, THE LINE becomes a necessity rather than far-fetched idea.


0.0 eccentricity means that it has no seasonal variation?


It means its orbit is a circle. Seasonal variation is due to the tilt of the planet's axis of rotation relative to its orbit, not orbital eccentricity.


Well on our planet that's the case. Another planet might well have seasons due to orbital eccentricity. Though it would have to be pretty serious eccentricity I think.

If they would have no tilt then the seasons would be the same all over the planet unlike ours where they're opposite in each hemisphere.



I know what causes seasonal variations, but for some reason I thought 0.0 eccentricity meant no tilt. Thanks


It means the orbit is perfectly circular. Earth's seasons are driven almost exclusively by our axial tilt*, not our orbital eccentricity. Our eccentricity also being 0.0(167).

* Astrometeorologists feel free to correct me on this.



Wikipedia says this

  The relative increase in solar irradiation at closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) compared to the irradiation at the furthest distance (aphelion) is slightly larger than four times the eccentricity. For Earth's current orbital eccentricity, incoming solar radiation varies by about 6.8%, while the distance from the Sun currently varies by only 3.4% (5.1 million km or 3.2 million mi or 0.034 au).[9]

  Perihelion presently occurs around 3 January, while aphelion is around 4 July. When the orbit is at its most eccentric, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion will be about 23% more than at aphelion. However, the Earth's eccentricity is so small (at least at present) that the variation in solar irradiation is a minor factor in seasonal climate variation, compared to axial tilt and even compared to the relative ease of heating the larger land masses of the northern hemisphere.[10] 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles


This is an interesting read but I can’t help to wonder…

We can hardly take care of this planet. Why are we bothering with finding another planet that is habitable if we are only going to destroy it as well?



Because some people's glass is half full and aren't waiting for the death of the human race? We can study exoplanets and work on saving our own at the same time; which we have the capacity for right now with nuclear fission power. the powers that be haven't been forced to be responsible yet. they eventually will have to deal with it long before humans go extinct.


>Why are we bothering with finding

This is like asking why should one try getting a better job while some people live in hunger.

Civilization has to work in many directions in order to progress. While some people are trying to find a way to deal with local issues (climate change, production, goverenance etc.) other people search a new potential home or a colony.



What is notable about this specific exoplanet?


Maybe this

> Should this second planet be confirmed, it would represent the smallest habitable zone planet discovered by TESS to date.



Novelty


Apologies for an extremely layman question, but what relatively accessible book could one read to understand all the formulas and acronyms in this paragraph? I mean to take them in as tools, if that makes sense?

In this context, we report on the discovery and validation of TOI-715 b, a planet orbiting its nearby (42 pc) M4 host (TOI-715/TIC 271971130) with a period d. TOI-715 b was first identified by TESS and validated using ground-based photometry, high-resolution imaging and statistical validation. The planet’s orbital period combined with the stellar effective temperature give this planet an installation , placing it within the most conservative definitions of the habitable zone for rocky planets.



Please, Please, Please, be it.


Be what?


Be have, as my daughter thinks I'm saying...


Magrathea






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