Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This would be nothing but “another (faux) victory over Putin” that could be spun as having made the populace’s reduced living standards worthwhile after they dropped due to the anti-Russian sanctions.

Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev published a piece at RT in late August about “NATO’s Anschluss” in which he warned about the consequences of Austria joining the bloc like some there want to do. This issue affects his country’s prestige since the USSR was one of the guarantors of Austrian neutrality. Any unilateral moves towards NATO membership in violation of Moscow’s veto would therefore provoke an international legal crisis.

This would accelerate the breakdown of international law that’s been in progress for a while and bring the West closer towards fully revising the post-WWII order in Europe. Germany’s remilitarization plans from 2022 onward arguably made this a fait accompli but Austria’s moves towards NATO membership might finally provoke a long-awaited political crisis over this issue. Medvedev also proposed that international institutions in Vienna be relocated abroad to a truly neutral country in that scenario.

As for the military-security consequences, he warned that “Austria’s Bundesheer units may find themselves included in the Russian Armed Forces’ long-range mission plans. A package of countermeasures was adopted against Sweden and Finland after their NATO accession, and Austria should not expect any exceptions here.” Any NATO-Russian war would likely result in Austria becoming unlivable whether it’s neutral or not, as well as a lot of the Northern Hemisphere, so that’s a moot point.

Nevertheless, it’s important for Austrians to realize that they’d be shattering their country’s neutral reputation and putting a target on their backs in the event of war, but none of that matters for NATO. Its potential “Anschluss” with Austria would be for purely narrative reasons in order to spin it as “another (faux) victory over Putin” to go along with Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO. The scenario of Serbia sanctioning Russia and Bosnia fast-tracking its NATO membership would complement this notion.

The goal of NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine has always been to inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia, first by using Ukraine as a platform from which Russia could be blackmailed into submission via NATO infrastructure there and then via more direct means after the special operation sought to preempt that. After the special operation, this goal was openly declared and advanced through the dual means of sanctions and then 2023’s counteroffensive, but both failed and a strategic defeat was averted.

Accordingly, any political resolution of the Ukrainian Conflict will therefore be seen as a defeat for the West, ergo the need to engineer faux victories that could be spun as having made the populace’s reduced living standards worthwhile after they dropped due to the anti-Russian sanctions. Formalizing Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO memberships after years of them being de facto members and the bloc’s “Anschluss” with Austria are easy means to this end while the mentioned Balkan ones are a bit tougher.

Circling back to Medvedev’s article, he’s right about the legal-political and military-security consequences of Austria joining NATO, but his piece could have benefited by addressing the question of why this is being discussed right now despite it having no significant impact on the balance of power. The answer is that it’s all for perception management purposes vis-à-vis the Western public after the Ukrainian Conflict failed to result in Russia’s strategic defeat despite the costs that they’ve paid for this.