人工智能泡沫担忧可能削弱美国芯片限制。
AI Bubble Fears Could Weaken US Chip Restricitons

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-bubble-fears-could-weaken-us-chip-restricitons

最近的进展预示着中美科技关系和中国国内经济政策的转变。据报道,特朗普政府正在考虑放宽对华芯片出口限制,可能允许英伟达出售先进人工智能芯片——这是英伟达一直在积极游说争取的结果,理由是存在竞争劣势。与此同时,美国投资者对人工智能的热情正在降温,英伟达最近的股价下跌就是一个例证。 与此同时,中国正在探索财政刺激措施,以提振其陷入困境的房地产市场,包括抵押贷款补贴和税收减免,因为进一步降息的空间有限。尽管面临持续的经济挑战,但对中国债务的需求正在激增。最近的一次债券销售吸引了创纪录的竞标——超过2340亿美元——使中国能够以具有竞争力的利率借款,并看到离岸投资者对人民币计价债券的兴趣复苏。这些行动表明,中国正在采取双管齐下的方法,以应对国内经济压力并应对复杂的国际贸易动态。

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原文

By John Liu, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

1. As concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble intensify in US stock markets, the Trump administration is considering options to ease restrictions on chip exports to China.

US officials are said to have early discussions on whether to let Nvidia Corp. sell its H200 AI chips to China. The potential move would constitute a victory for the world’s most valuable company.

Nvidia has been lobbying against the strict US chip export controls on China, arguing that such curbs would hand China’s massive AI market over to local competitors like Huawei Technologies Co.

Enthusiasm for AI is fading among American investors. Nvidia’s stock price has fallen 13.6% from its October high, despite reporting stronger-than-expected revenue forecasts last week.

Allowing China to buy the more powerful H200 will bolster both Nvidia’s industry domination and the AI ambitions of China’s tech giants. Such a move will likely be hailed by investors on both sides of the Pacific.

The discussions will face opposition from China hawks in Washington. Federal prosecutors just charged two Chinese nationals and two US citizens with a scheme to smuggle advanced Nvidia chips to China.

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2. China is considering additional fiscal stimulus to support the real estate market, a move that serves as both crisis management and economic rebalancing.

Policymakers are said to consider a slew of options, such as providing new homebuyers mortgage subsidies, raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers, and lowering home transaction costs.

China’s struggling property sector remains among its most pressing economic issues. The slump in home sales and prices has worsened in recent months, with some indicators approaching the levels seen last year when China rolled out a package of rescue measures in September 2024.

A pivot of fiscal policy in favor of greater support to the housing market is timely. The room to cut borrowing costs further is limited as banks’ asset quality are under pressure. After all, combating deflation requires boosting household income, not investment.

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3. China’s euro bond sale drew record demand last week in the latest sign of growing investor appetite for the country’s debt.

China’s Ministry of Finance has raised a combined $8.6 billion by tapping both the dollar and euro bond markets in recent weeks, with bids for the two bonds reaching a record total of at least $234 billion.

Investors’ robust appetite allowed China to borrow dollars at essentially the same cost as the US. Its euro-denominated bond was also sold at yields slightly above the benchmarks.

Global investors’ appetite for yuan-dominated sovereign notes is also rebounding. Offshore institutions increased holdings of China’s onshore government bonds in October, ending a four-month selling streak.

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