比特币闪跌至82,000美元以下,瑞银称需要一轮“清洗”后才会“转为更乐观”。
Bitcoin Flash-Crashes Below $82,000 As UBS Says A "Flush" Is Needed Before "Turning More Constructive" 

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-flash-crashes-below-82000-ubs-says-flush-needed-turning-more-constructive

比特币正在经历大幅下跌,跌至 81,569 美元,并面临自 2022 年以来最糟糕的一个月——跌幅约 25%。此次抛售没有明确的触发因素,已导致近 10 亿美元的清算,并引发了对熊市加剧的担忧,尽管机构采用和白宫支持等积极发展正在发生。 分析师指出潜在因素包括与迈克尔·塞勒的比特币持有量 (MSTR) 相关的“痛苦阈值”测试,以及对其可能从市场指数中除名的担忧。当前环境——强制卖出、低流动性和恐惧——类似于 2022 年的加密货币崩盘。 专家警告说,进一步的下跌可能会迫使散户投资者卖出,加剧避险情绪。虽然一些人预计“洗盘”可能会在明年创造更好的买入机会,但当前市场状况的特点是谨慎和“伤痕”,这源于近期 NVDA 等科技股的波动。问题仍然是,最近的跌幅是否代表了底部,还是说进一步的恐慌性抛售即将到来。

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原文

As we joked earlier this week about the overnight Bitcoin dump - the "Korean Krypto Kamikazes" - the selling has continued with no clear catalyst. The largest crypto asset briefly plunged to $81,569 and is now on track for its worst month since 2022. 

BTC dropped as much as 6% early Friday to $81,569, while Ether and smaller tokens plunged into the abyss as risk-off sentiment hit both crypto and equity futures (market wrap). Bitcoin is now down roughly 25% for the month.

Nearly $1 billion in positions were liquidated during the overnight flush, stoking fears that the bear market could deepen. This forced selling comes despite a pro-crypto White House and rising institutional adoption. 

Testing weekly 200sma

IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note that the market "may also be seeking to test Strategy's pain threshold," referring to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin hoarding firm.

A JPMorgan analyst pointed out to clients the potential exclusion of MSTR from upcoming MSCI and Nasdaq reviews. 

Overall, the crypto market is certaintly gripped by forced selling, thin liquidity, and extreme fear - a market environment very similar to the last crypto meltdown in June 2022. 

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"The risk now is that continued downside forces retail investors to sell favorites, sidelining dip buyers and triggering systematic supply," UBS analyst George Redma told clients. He warned that the crypto slump "may amplify risk-off sentiment into year-end." 

Redma continued, "The desk may need to see this flush before turning more constructive into year-end. Given the attention on CTA levels, a meaningful washout could set up a better risk backdrop heading into next year as stimulus returns to focus."

"For now, uncertainty around this overhang seems to be preventing re-risking despite traditionally strong seasonality," he concluded in a brief note to clients. 

Goldman Sachs trader John Flood told clients, "Sharp reversals in NVDA and Crypto suggestive that an NVDA beat was not the "all clear" for risk that we were hoping for (after what has already been a very difficult 2 week stretch). Plenty of scar tissue out there right now. We remain eerily quiet on our trading desk."

Goldman analyst Jack McFerran commented on the crypto bear market, saying, "I don't pretend to be a crypto expert and admittedly the 'why' is harder, but the confluence of whale selling seems to be leading risk." 

The question now is whether the slide to $81,569 was the full flush, or if more panic selling lies ahead as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday week.

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