马克·安德森:美国如何能在“有史以来最大的产业”中击败中国
Marc Andreessen: How America Can Beat China At "The Biggest Industry Ever Built"

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/marc-andreessen-how-america-can-beat-china-biggest-industry-ever-built

马克·安德森认为,美国专注于复兴*旧*制造业是一种误导。他相信未来在于主导建立在复杂、软件驱动硬件上的产业——电动汽车、机器人和先进的移动设备,而不是复制过去的流水线工作。 安德森认为美国在这次经济竞争中具有独特的优势,但受到监管障碍和高能源成本的阻碍,这些因素有利于中国的制造业。他将传统的中国工厂与特斯拉等现代设施进行对比,强调了向更高技能、更高薪资的“蓝领+”工作的转变。 他警告说,未能适应意味着将未来——特别是庞大的机器人和人工智能产业——拱手让给中国。安德森主张优先创新和监管改革,以实现专注于*构建未来产品*的21世纪再工业化,而不是追逐过去的幽灵。

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原文

Billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen has grown impatient with what he regards as a dangerously misguided national conversation about manufacturing in the United States, one that continues to fixate on bringing back the factories and jobs that disappeared four decades ago, when the far more consequential opportunity lies in dominating the complex, capital-intensive, software-defined hardware industries that will shape the rest of the century. 

You’re just not going to get the old factories back and you’re not getting the old jobs back in the way that they were 40 years ago when they were lost,” Andreessen declared in a recent, characteristically unfiltered podcast. “The things that are getting manufactured in the future decades are much more complex and sophisticated and technologically infused and powered than the things that used to get manufactured.”

Far from conceding defeat to China, Andreessen believes the U.S. remains uniquely positioned to win what he sees as the defining economic contest of our time, provided it stops wasting political and intellectual energy trying to recreate a world of steel-framed bicycles assembled by workers turning the same bolt ten thousand times a day and instead races to build the electric, sensor-laden, self-balancing mobility devices, the autonomous delivery drones, the advanced electric vehicles, and—most important—the humanoid robots that will constitute the largest industrial markets ever created.

You’re probably not going to get the bicycle manufacturing plant back that’s going to build bicycles the way they existed 40 years ago, where the plant’s going to work the same way it did 40 years ago, and where the jobs are going to be the same as they were 40 years ago,” Andreessen said. “What you actually want is you want to be making electric bikes, which are much more sophisticated physical artifacts that involve batteries and computers and chips.”

The factories required for these new products, as Andreessen pointed out, bear no resemblance to the labor-intensive assembly lines that still dominate much of China’s export machine, where hundreds or thousands of workers stand shoulder-to-shoulder performing the soul-crushing identical motion for ten or twelve hours in a single stretch. 

“If you go into a manufacturing plant in China assembling phones or building bicycles, you are going to see a lot of people standing at an assembly line doing the same thing over and over again for 10 hours,” the venture capitalist said. “But if you visit a Tesla factory today you see this in action, [which is] a large number of jobs that are kind of, call them blue-collar-plus jobs and then also white-collar jobs and all the associated service jobs around those higher-paying jobs, higher-skilled jobs that are frankly a lot more pleasant, that are a lot more interesting.”

If you ask Andreessen, what prevents the U.S. from scaling dozens or hundreds of furutistic facilities is not a lack of capital or talent, but a host of overbearing regulatory obstacles and chronically high energy costs that make it faster and cheaper to build in Guangdong than in Georgia.

“If you pair that futuristic outlook with the regulatory reforms and you solve all the issues around energy prices and natural resources and everything else that need to be solved,” he said, “I think that’s the formula.”

Andreessen warned that continued inaction means far more than another decade of importing consumer electronics; it means the permanent loss of the industries that will restructure global wealth and power.

If we don’t do that, all of those things are going to get made in China. Not just phones and not just drones but also cars and also robots,” Andreessen explained.  “The great industry of the future is going to be robots, AI in mechanical form, which is going to be, I think, the biggest industry that’s ever been built. And right now, by default, China’s set up to do that.”

Yet, an American victory on a scale that would dwarf the postwar industrial boom, remains entirely within reach provided the country chooses ambition over nostalgia.

“What an amazing story it would be for America in the 21st century, that we re-industrialize not to build the products of the past, but to build the products of the future,” Andreessen concluded. 

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