卡森·布洛克:做空大科技是“遗孀制造者”交易,即使有对人工智能泡沫的担忧。
Carson Block: Shorting Big Tech Is Widowmaker Trade, Even With AI Bubble Fears

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carson-block-shorting-big-tech-widowmaker-trade-even-ai-bubble-fears

尽管卡森·布洛克是著名的空头卖家,但他建议*不要*做空英伟达等科技巨头。他认为,试图从它们的衰落中获利风险太高,因为它们会被持续买入,无论价格如何,这都归功于它们被纳入标准普尔500指数。相反,他建议专注于做空那些虚假声称参与人工智能的公司,即“人工智能伪装者”。 布洛克指出,被动投资扭曲了价格发现机制,使得英伟达能够不受控制地上涨。这一观点呼应了英伟达强劲的财报和乐观的预测,包括到2026年5000亿美元的收入目标,这缓解了人们对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 有趣的是,“大空头”投资者迈克尔·伯里最近注销了他的基金,此前他因持有英伟达和Palantir的看跌期权而受到批评,这表明很难押注这些高飞的股票。市场现在正等待观察英伟达的表现是否会再次推动人工智能和加密货币投资的激增。

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原文

Muddy Waters Capital CEO Carson Block joined Bloomberg TV overnight to discuss whether it's time to short the hyperscalers and the broader artificial-intelligence trade. The answer he gave is somewhat surprising.

Block, a notorious short-seller, warned against betting against the tech giants: "If you're out there trying to short Nvidia or any of these big tech names, you're not going to be in business very long."

"I would much rather be long than be short in this market," Block told BBG TV, adding, "You have all these AI adjacent companies, AI pretenders, that's where you would want to look to short." 

He continued, "However, so long as the leaders such as Nvidia are still going up into the right, that would be a very dangerous trade."

Block noted that the surge in passive trading had "broken the markets in terms of greatly diminishing price discovery."

"It doesn't matter how expensive Nvidia gets," he said. "All of these funds that are buying the S&P 500 index, they will not sell Nvidia until they have net outflows. They will buy it everyday at whatever the price is if they have inflows."

Comments from the seasoned short-seller, who has lived through multiple cycles, come just hours after Nvidia jumped 5% in after-hours trading on Wednesday following strong earnings (read report).

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu told clients earlier, "Nvidia's Upbeat Forecast Should Lift Some AI Bubble Fears." 

Antiedu explained further:

Nvidia's after-market strength was sustained, with the stock up 5%, and nothing to nit-pick with a continued upbeat tone on the call with GB300 surpassing GB200, robust accelerator demand and Rubin on track for the second half of 2026. CEO Jensen Huang downplayed any AI bubble fears saying "we see something very different" and reiterated the $500 bn revenue visibility target by the end of 2026. He cited this number will grow with more orders (the Anthropic deal as one example). In terms of supply constraints, Nvidia did acknowledge input costs are going up, but they plan to sustain mid-70s gross margins as it appears to be doing a good job managing the supply chain planning for a "really big year". Overall, a rather upbeat forecast/outlook, which should sooth some of lingering AI bubble fears and a general sigh of relief for markets broadly.

Last week, "Big Short" investor Michael Burry deregistered Scion Asset Management with the Securities and Exchange Commission after receiving a lot of criticism on X over his latest 13F, which showed that roughly 80% of his put positions were concentrated in high-fliers Palantir and Nvidia.

It's no mystery why Burry wants to hide his trades in secrecy - it only takes one X post to go viral, like this one... 

The trillion-dollar question ...

... is whether Nvidia earnings revive another up leg in everything AI and crypto into the holidays. 

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