谷歌老板称人工智能投资热潮“带有非理性因素”
Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

原始链接: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo

## AI 繁荣:Alphabet 首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊的谨慎提醒 Alphabet 首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊对当前人工智能 (AI) 投资中的“非理性”现象提出了警告,并表示如果 AI 泡沫破裂,没有一家公司——包括谷歌——将完全幸免。 此番言论正值 AI 公司估值飙升和大量投资之际,引发了人们对重蹈互联网泡沫破裂覆辙的担忧。 皮查伊承认存在一定程度的过度投资,类似于互联网早期阶段,但他仍然对 AI 的长期变革潜力充满信心。 他强调谷歌拥有从芯片到数据的整个技术“堆栈”的优势,这可以作为应对市场动荡的缓冲。 采访还透露,Alphabet 承诺在英国 AI 基础设施和研究方面投资 50 亿英镑,包括在英国境内训练 AI 模型。 然而,皮查伊强调了 AI 的“巨大”能源需求,这可能会影响气候目标,并强调需要扩大能源基础设施。 他还预计人工智能会对社会和就业市场造成重大 disruption,敦促个人适应并学习利用 AI 工具,才能在不断变化的环境中蓬勃发展。

## 人工智能投资:伴随系统性风险的泡沫 谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊承认当前人工智能投资热潮包含“非理性因素”,引发了Hacker News上关于潜在泡沫的讨论。虽然谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊等主要参与者有足够的财务实力来应对衰退,但担忧的重点在于该行业的过度估值、不可持续的债务以及初创公司可能出现的广泛裁员。 许多评论员认为,一次修正是不可避免的,质疑当前炒作是否与实际经济价值相符。关于*何时*泡沫会破裂存在争论,一些人认为公司之间的互联交易是试图延长不可避免的事情。一个主要担忧是人工智能投资集中在少数大型公司手中,以及它对更广泛经济的潜在影响,特别是如果崩盘严重影响投资于人工智能相关债务的养老基金。 尽管存在怀疑,但一些人认为人工智能的变革潜力依然存在,将这种情况与互联网泡沫进行比较——一次修正,而不是技术的彻底崩溃。另一些人建议专注于具体的投资,以应对市场波动。最终,这场讨论凸显了人们对系统性风险日益增长的认识以及潜在的重大颠覆。
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原文

Faisal Islam,economics editor and

Rachel Clun,business reporter

Alphabet boss Sundar Pichai has warned of some "irrationality" in the current AI boom

Every company would be affected if the AI bubble were to burst, the head of Google's parent firm Alphabet has told the BBC.

Speaking exclusively to BBC News, Sundar Pichai said while the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) investment had been an "extraordinary moment", there was some "irrationality" in the current AI boom.

It comes amid fears in Silicon Valley and beyond of a bubble as the value of AI tech companies has soared in recent months and companies spend big on the burgeoning industry.

Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Mr Pichai said the tech giant could weather that potential storm, but also issued a warning.

"I think no company is going to be immune, including us," he said.

In a wide-ranging exclusive interview at Google's California headquarters, he also addressed energy needs, slowing down climate targets, UK investment, the accuracy of his AI models, and the effect of the AI revolution on jobs.

The interview comes as scrutiny on the state of the AI market has never been more intense.

Alphabet shares have doubled in value in seven months to $3.5tn (£2.7tn) as markets have grown more confident in the search giant's ability to fend off the threat from ChatGPT owner OpenAI.

A particular focus is Alphabet's development of specialised superchips for AI that compete with Nvidia, run by Jensen Huang, which recently reached a world first $5tn valuation.

As valuations rise, some analysts have expressed scepticism about a complicated web of $1.4tn of deals being done around OpenAI, which is expected to have revenues this year of less than one thousandth of the planned investment.

It has raised fears stock markets are heading for a repeat of the dotcom boom and bust of the late 1990s. This saw the values of early internet companies surge amid a wave of optimism for what was then a new technology, before the bubble burst in early 2000 and many share prices collapsed.

This led to some companies going bust, resulting in job losses. A drop in share prices can also hit the value of people's savings including their pension funds.

In comments echoing those made by US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan in 1996, warning of "irrational exuberance" in the market well ahead of the dotcom crash, Mr Pichai said the industry can "overshoot" in investment cycles like this.

"We can look back at the internet right now. There was clearly a lot of excess investment, but none of us would question whether the internet was profound," he said.

"I expect AI to be the same. So I think it's both rational and there are elements of irrationality through a moment like this."

His comments follow a warning from Jamie Dimon, the boss of US bank JP Morgan, who told the BBC last month that investment in AI would pay off, but some of the money poured into the industry would "probably be lost".

But Mr Pichai said Google's unique model of owning its own "full stack" of technologies - from chips to YouTube data, to models and frontier science - meant it was in a better position to ride out any AI market turbulence.

The tech giant is also expanding its footprint in the UK. In September, Alphabet announced it was investing in UK artificial intelligence, committing £5bn to infrastructure and research over the next two years.

Mr Pichai said Alphabet will develop "state of the art" research work in the UK including at its key AI unit DeepMind, based in London.

For the first time, he said Google would "over time" take a step that is being pushed for in government to "train our models" in the UK - a move that cabinet ministers believe would cement the UK as the number three AI "superpower" after the US and China.

"We are committed to investing in the UK in a pretty significant way," Mr Pichai said.

However, he also warned about the "immense" energy needs of AI, which made up 1.5% of the world's electricity consumption last year, according to the International Energy Agency.

Mr Pichai said action was needed, including in the UK, to develop new sources of energy and scale up energy infrastructure.

"You don't want to constrain an economy based on energy, and I think that will have consequences," he said.

He also acknowledged that the intensive energy needs of its expanding AI venture meant there was slippage on the company's climate targets, but insisted Alphabet still had a target of achieving net zero by 2030 by investing in new energy technologies.

"The rate at which we were hoping to make progress will be impacted," he said.

AI will also affect work as we know it, Mr Pichai said, calling it "the most profound technology" humankind had worked on.

"We will have to work through societal disruptions," he said, adding that it would also "create new opportunities".

"It will evolve and transition certain jobs, and people will need to adapt," he said. Those who do adapt to AI "will do better".

"It doesn't matter whether you want to be a teacher [or] a doctor. All those professions will be around, but the people who will do well in each of those professions are people who learn how to use these tools."

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