为什么没有水管/暖通空调行业的“优步”?(以及为什么应该有)
Why is there no Uber for plumbing/HVAC? (and why there ought to be)

原始链接: https://nikolaihlebowitsh.substack.com/p/why-is-there-no-uber-for-home-maintenance

达拉斯一场酷热天气中,作者的暖通空调系统失灵,由此开始了为期五天的令人沮丧的维修寻找过程。报价差异巨大——从等待时间长且价格为14,000美元,到22,000美元,最终定为6,000美元。这次经历凸显了一个存在严重缺陷的系统,该系统充斥着价格欺诈,特别是那些涉嫌使用虚假评论的高评级公司。 核心问题源于**信息不对称**(房主缺乏定价知识)、承包商基本上“自行开药方”进行维修、私募股权公司导致的**市场整合**减少了竞争、利用紧急情况,以及缺乏用于比较的标准平台。繁重的当地许可也限制了新市场参与者。 现有的技术解决方案——潜在客户生成器、垂直整合公司和软件平台——也未能解决问题,要么优先考虑数量而非质量,要么变得自身昂贵,要么未能解决透明度和信任等核心消费者问题。 最终,在房屋维护行业中,仍然缺乏一个可靠、透明的平台,该平台提供预先定价、经过验证的质量和以客户为中心的服务,这使得房主容易受到虚高费用和不一致服务的侵害。

## 为什么没有“管道/暖通空调行业的Uber”? 最近在Hacker News上的一场讨论探讨了为什么像Uber这样的服务没有颠覆管道和暖通空调行业。核心问题不是缺乏技术,而是工作性质的根本差异。与网约车不同,这些行业主要以企业对企业(B2B)运营,而不是直接面向消费者(B2C)。 许多评论员指出,质量、可靠性和既定的关系在这些领域至关重要。客户通常缺乏评估工作质量或合理定价的能力,如果价格是唯一因素,会导致恶性竞争。技术娴熟的工匠应该获得公平的报酬,优质的公司需要考虑保险和熟练劳动力等成本。 此外,每个工作现场的复杂性和可变性——每栋房子都不同——与网约车的标准化性质形成对比。 讨论还指出了私募股权在暖通空调领域的整合以及TaskRabbit和家庭保修公司等替代方案的存在,但存在一些限制。最终,共识是,“Uber”模式依赖于可替代的劳动力和标准化的服务,并不适用于技术行业。
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原文

In July 2024, during a brutal 110-degree week in Dallas, my wife and I came back from vacation to find our HVAC system had failed. This experience frankly absolutely sucked. As our family slowly melted into the floor, I began the frantic process of trying to find someone to fix it.

Over the course of five days, I got three quotes. Here’s what that looked like:

  • HVAC Company #1: 5 days to get someone onsite, missed the first appointment, quoted me $14K for a system with roughly $3K of materials.

  • HVAC Company #2: 1 day to onsite, staggering $22K quote.

  • HVAC Company #3: Same-day onsite, $6K quote.

The same problem, in the same city, and it took nearly a week to sort through an answer that solved the problem. In the end, I was convinced I was still not getting an optimized price, but when you’re getting cook you gotta make decisions. I chose the cheapest quote with the hope that nothing bad would come if quality was meaningfully worse with the cheaper option.

The Core Problem

I walked away from that experience extremely frustrated. I was particularly irritated that the “high-trust” companies in Dallas, the ones with thousands of glowing Google reviews, were the worst offenders when it came to price gouging. I spent weeks researching these companies and came away convinced that most of them paid for fake reviews to overtake negative ones. It felt like wandering through a Bizarro-world of a rapidly degrading consumer experience, at ever-rising prices, consolidated among fewer and fewer players, propped up by fake reviews and misleading advertising.

Why does it take five days to get three completely different quotes on something that happens to millions of Americans every year? Why is the experience so slow, so expensive, so inconsistent, and so completely lacking transparency?

Why Does This Suck So Much?

We wanted to properly understand the core reasons why this degrading experience is occurring. We met with hundreds of CEOs, investors, and industry experts; the result of which we boiled down to the following:

  • Information Asymmetry: Homeowners (ourselves included) don’t know what a fair price is, much less if the solution is the right one. Labor rates, markups, and system specs are hidden behind technical complexity.

  • Doctor Writing Their Own Prescriptions: Without transparency, techs charge whatever they think they can get away with. When a plumber tells me that my air valve is broken, I have to assume they’re telling the truth because to be honest, I have no idea what an air valve is (turns out it’s a $15 part that I at one point paid $2K to have installed).

  • Market Concentration & Fake Reviews: As private equity consolidates the trades, local competition shrinks. Large firms spend heavily on marketing and reviews, crowding out smaller operators. The result: you pay more but don’t necessarily get better service.

  • Urgency = Exploitation: When your AC dies in 110-degree heat or your pipes burst in the winter, you don’t have the luxury of waiting weeks for multiple quotes. Contractors know this and build business models around high-pressure upsells and inflated pricing.

  • No Platform Standardization: In ridesharing or food delivery, you can open an app, compare prices, and know roughly what you’ll get. In plumbing and HVAC? It’s a shot in the dark every time.

  • Local Regulatory Moat: Plumbing and HVAC licenses are heavily regulated at the local level. When I mean heavily regulated I mean heavily regulated. Installing a water heater without a permit can/will result in meaningful fines or jail-time. While the licensing requirements are reasonable in-and-of-themselves, local license holders use the regulation to prevent new entrants and keep prices high.

Why Haven’t Tech Companies Fixed This?

On the surface, these problems seem solvable with enough capital and ambition. When we took over Stellar, we thought the same thing. But almost every tech company that starts with the “Uber for home maintenance” thesis has ended up falling into one of three buckets:

  • The Predatory Lead Generators: Think Angie’s List, HomeAdvisor, Thumbtack. They sell you “leads” at high prices, often recycled and resold to multiple contractors. Consumers don’t get better service (I do not enjoy getting 5 quotes), and contractors are squeezed on margins. These platforms optimize for transaction volume, not customer experience.

  • The Hero Becomes A Villain: Some startups raise venture money and try to vertically integrate, hiring techs, buying trucks, running as a scaled contractor. But as the capital requirements rise and scale gets hard, they curb their ambition and raise rates by 10x and become a part of the problem.

  • The Tech Platforms (With No Ownership): Others stay “asset light,” building scheduling, payments, or dispatch software. While this makes contractors’ lives easier, it doesn’t solve the consumer’s pain around transparency, quality, or price. These platforms skate on the surface of the problem without owning the outcome to the consumer.

The Gap That Remains

That leaves us with a massive, unresolved gap: there is still no platform that delivers a magical experience for homeowners in plumbing, HVAC, or other maintenance.

We all know what it should look like:

  • An Uber-like, magical experience that you can trust to show up on time, do the right thing on your behalf, and fractionalize prices in an antiquated industry.

  • Transparent pricing (preferably upfront if possible) that doesn’t feel like a hostage negotiation.

  • Verified quality standards that reward great work instead of great marketing budgets.

  • A single interface that actually empowers the customer, instead of exploiting their urgency.

We see this problem clearly in our seats leading Stellar - folks deserve a better experience than they’re getting today.

联系我们 contact @ memedata.com