俄罗斯将实行全年军事征兵制,预计乌克兰冲突将持续。
Russia Moves To Year-Round Military Draft, Anticipating Extended Ukraine Fight

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-moves-year-round-military-draft-anticipating-years-more-ukraine

俄罗斯将于明年开始实行全年制军事征兵,预示着乌克兰冲突可能长期化。国家杜马最近批准的立法将允许征兵委员会持续进行所有入伍程序,而不是在有限的征兵期间进行。 支持者声称这将简化招聘流程并提高征兵人员的素质,减轻行政负担。然而,这一转变强烈暗示克里姆林宫预计战争将持续很长时间,超过自全面入侵以来的三年期限。 这一决定是在对前总统特朗普可能促成的快速和平协议的希望减弱之际做出的。俄罗斯也可能正在为扩大战斗做准备,原因是西方向乌克兰提供的军事援助增加,并旨在展示其在持续制裁下的韧性。尽管俄罗斯尚未正式宣布“战争”,但此举表明其致力于为其“特别军事行动”维持兵力。

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原文

The Russian government is preparing to expand military conscription in order to ensure steady flow of manpower related to its Ukraine 'special military operation'.

Russia's State Duma (lower house) has approved legislation on Tuesday that will shift the country’s military to a year-round conscription model beginning next year, part of the broader push to boost troop numbers related to Ukraine, the regional monitor Moscow Times says.

A key change is that draft boards will be able to carry out medical examinations, psychological evaluations, and other enlistment procedures at any point throughout the year, instead of just during designated draft periods as the policy currently stands.

According to more from the publication:

Supporters of the reform say it is designed to ease the administrative burden on military recruitment offices and better distribute workload across the year.

The bill’s explanatory notes say the new system will improve the quality of conscription and reduce bottlenecks during the bi-annual surge.

All of this strongly points to the Kremlin anticipating that the deadly war will grind on possibly for years more to come. It has already been going for well over three years, since the full-scale invasion of Feb. 2022.

Prior to that, the Donbass civil war pitted pro-Russian autonomous republics against the Ukrainian army and its associated militias in the region. But at this point, Russia has still not officially mobilized society for what meets the (domestic) legal definition "war", as it's instead a Special Military Operation (SMO).

What were previously high hopes for President Trump to broker a Ukraine peace deal have faded, and the much talked about Budapest summit with Putin has been put on indefinite hold.

Putin could also be anticipating expanding battlelines based on the Western military alliance pouring more weapons into the conflict - for example long-range missiles from the US and UK.

Recruitment methods in Russia have been less controversial than the desperate tactics often on display in Ukraine...

Moscow might also now be flexing back, showing that it can outlast its enemies in this war of attrition, even as the US and EU impose maximal sanctions, which just happened with the sanctioning of two Russian oil giants.

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