For half a century, how couples met in America was primarily shaped by family and friend networks, communities, churches, colleges, and workplaces - you know, just the traditional fabric of Western society. However, the advent of the internet and the rise of Big Tech, with its closely guarded algorithms (and now AI bots), have dramatically reshaped modern romance. Yet, new data from Goldman suggests that how couples meet, whether online or through dating apps, may have reached a major inflection point.

The three-decade trend is clear: traditional networks, whether through friends, bars, or other social circles, haven't dominated how couples meet since the late 1990s. The internet changed everything. But the question now is, how sustainable is the trend of finding your partner on a dating app?

This brings us to a report published by a team of Goldman analysts led by Eric Sheridan, who provided clients with everything they need to know about dating app companies tracked by GS ahead of the third quarter earnings season.

We won't focus on Sheridan's downgrade of Bumble from "Buy" to "Neutral" or the key investor discussions surrounding Match Group and Grindr. Instead, the focus is on new SensorTower data cited by the analyst, which shows that monthly active users and download growth across major dating apps have been stuck in a funk. 

The highlights of the data (US only) include:

• Monthly Active Users: During July-September, Hinge posted MAU growth of +6% YoY, while all other tracked dating apps declined.

• Downloads: Download trends during the quarter remained negative, with Bumble app downloads -39% YoY (driven in part by lower marketing spend).

The question now is: what's changed in how people perceive meeting a significant other online? Could it be a growing trust issue that meeting a random stranger on the internet feels increasingly risky, given the occasional horror stories? Perhaps people are rediscovering the real value of meeting through friends or social circles, where some level of vetting naturally occurs. Whatever the reason behind the apparent slowdown in online dating momentum, younger generations may be quietly shifting back to the basics.