如何促成选区划分停止协议
How To Broker A Gerrymandering Ceasefire

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-broker-gerrymandering-ceasefire

美国再次陷入选区划分之争,德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州已经通过了可能有利于各自政党的选区划分方案。虽然选区划分改革通常侧重于*谁*来绘制地图——主张设立独立委员会,但作者认为应该关注*什么*标准。 委员会并非万无一失,可能缺乏问责制并容易受到操纵。相反,选区应该优先维护地方社区,尽量减少县和市政区的分割,并最大限度地提高紧凑性。至关重要的是,应该禁止在选区划分过程中使用党派数据(选民登记、过去的结果),因为它助长了现代计算机程序实现的划区。 作者建议通过国会行动(仅限于美国众议院选区)或州际协议(要求多数州同意标准)进行全国性改革。联邦法院将执行这两种方法。在2028年选举之前达成休战至关重要,因为下一轮选区划分可能会严重偏袒一方,类似于2010年中期选举后共和党的 gains。避免这种情况需要双方妥协并结束“高科技选区划分战争”。

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原文

Authored by Andy Jackson via RealClearWire,

The United States is in the middle of another round of the redistricting wars. 

This latest battle began in late August. The Texas legislature approved maps that will likely result in five additional Republicans being elected to Congress. In response, the California legislature passed a plan that would likely result in five Republicans being replaced with Democrats. The California plan is subject to voter approval in November.

Those appear to be just the opening salvos in the mid-decade redistricting fight, as other states look to jump into the fray

It is time for a ceasefire.

But how?

Many redistricting reform advocates have focused on changing who draws the maps. They have called for redistricting commissions to take that responsibility away from state legislatures.

Commissions are not a panacea, however. They are often unaccountable, with members usually serving temporarily and not subject to being fired, recalled, or defeated for reelection. They can also be manipulated by partisan groups that infiltrate hearings pretending to be ordinary citizens.

Nor do commissions guarantee states protection from lawsuits. For example, a group of citizens successfully sued the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission for racial gerrymandering in 2023. 

More important than the “who” of redistricting is the “what.” What are the standards being used to draw districts?

On the heels of the last midterm election, I co-authored a comprehensive report on limiting gerrymandering for North Carolina, but its criteria can be applied to any state.

Those criteria can be divided into two broad categories. The first is that districts should be tied to local communities. Statewide considerations, such as creating maps with the “correct” partisan balance, should not subsume local interests. To that end, states must be required to minimize splitting counties, municipalities, and voting precincts. Districts should also be as compact as possible, consistent with keeping political communities whole. Many states follow those criteria in word but bend them to partisan considerations in practice.

Second, the use of partisan data, such as voter registration numbers and election results, should be banned. Partisan data is helpful only for those seeking to reach some predetermined goal regarding the partisan distribution of legislative seats or to ensure that certain districts elect candidates from a favored party. While gerrymandering has been with us for centuries, the advent of computer mapping programs and the data fed into them made gerrymandering the precision weapon it is today.

Additionally, maps should be drawn openly on computers that the public can view in person and online, and mid-decade redistricting should be banned absent a court order.

Redistricting reform should also be implemented nationwide. That can be done in two ways. The first is through an act of Congress, putting conditions on how states draw congressional districts.

One weakness of that approach is that the Elections Clause of the Constitution permits Congress to alter the rules only for electing U.S. representatives, so redistricting for state legislative districts would be unaffected.

Another approach would be an interstate compact. The compact would have a trigger clause to go into effect only if states representing a majority of congressional districts join and those districts are roughly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.

Either approach would involve federal courts as an enforcement mechanism. While the United States Supreme Court pointed out in Rucho v. Common Cause that “federal courts are neither equipped nor authorized to apportion political power as a matter of fairness,” they would have an appropriate role in ruling on violations of federal law or liability for breaking interstate compacts. That court presence would force states to adhere to redistricting standards, including those they are already supposed to be following.

However we arrive at a truce in the redistricting wars, we should seek it before the 2028 presidential election. The president’s party usually suffers in midterm elections. The last pre-redistricting midterm election in 2010, during Barack Obama’s first term, led to Republican dominance of the redistricting process. 

We have little idea of how that pendulum might swing before 2028. That uncertainty should incentivize both sides to reach an agreement out of fear that the other side could dominate redistricting in 2031 without such a deal. 

It won’t be easy to convince partisan politicians to put down their map-drawing arms, but it is worth the effort to get the high-tech redistricting wars behind us.

Andy Jackson is the director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation in Raleigh, N.C.

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