预计到2031年，死亡人数将超过出生人数。

预计到2031年，死亡人数将超过出生人数。
Deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031

原始链接: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61390

国会预算办公室（CBO）已下调其美国人口预测，预计到2055年人口将为3.67亿——比之前预测的更少，且增长速度更慢。这些变化主要源于净移民（由于最近的行政行动和如第119-21号公共法案等立法）和生育率的降低。具体而言，预计到2035年人口将比2025年1月的预测减少450万，到2055年将减少540万。这一转变也影响了劳动力，预计25-54岁的主要劳动年龄人口将减少。CBO现在预计到2031年死亡人数将超过出生人数，比之前预测的提前两年。重要的是要注意，这些预测具有不确定性，尤其是在长期内，并且受到未来移民、生育和死亡率趋势的强烈影响——这些因素容易受到当前估算中未考虑到的政策变化的影响。

## 人口下降与未来担忧 - Hacker News 摘要一份CBO报告预测2031年死亡人数将超过出生人数，由此引发了Hacker News的讨论，内容集中在全球人口趋势的影响因素。用户们争论人口结构变化是不可避免的，还是取决于政策和生活条件。许多评论员指出，生活水平提高（健康、收入、教育）与生育率下降之间存在关联，并质疑“稳定平衡”是否意味着发展中国家赶上来的过程中将持续面临困境。另一些人认为，人口可能会稳定在80亿左右，类似于动物种群的自然增长模式，从而避免崩溃和零增长的情况。住房负担能力和高强度工作时间等经济因素也被认为是生育意愿的阻碍。人们对依靠移民来抵消人口老龄化的可持续性表示担忧，尤其是在移民来源国也面临生育率下降的情况下。最后，人工智能和自动化可能导致的工作岗位流失时间，为讨论增添了另一层不确定性。

原文

The Congressional Budget Office periodically updates its demographic outlook to reflect recent developments and changes in laws and policies. The agency last published its demographic projections in January 2025. Since then, CBO has incorporated new data and reduced its estimates of net immigration over the 2025–2033 period and fertility over the 2025–2055 period.

Administrative actions taken since January 20, 2025, are the largest factor decreasing CBO's projections of the number of immigrants in the country. The 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21) also decreases that number.

CBO now projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055. It will be smaller and grow more slowly over the next 30 years, on average, than the agency previously projected it would. Those changes stem from lower projected net immigration through 2033 and lower fertility rates over the 2025–2055 period than the agency projected in January. In CBO's current projections, the population in 2035 is 4.5 million people smaller (or 1.2 percent) than it was projected to be in the agency's January projections. That difference grows to 5.4 million people (or 1.5 percent) in 2055. The population contains fewer people ages 25 to 54—the age group that is most likely to participate in the labor force—than the agency previously projected. Deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031, two years earlier than previously projected.

CBO's population projections are highly uncertain, especially in the later years of the 2025–2055 period. If rates of fertility, mortality, or net immigration are higher or lower than CBO projects, the resulting population will differ in size and composition from the one described here. For example, immigration could differ significantly from CBO's projections because of future legislative or administrative changes, which are not incorporated into the current projections. The effects of such differences would be larger in later years because the differences would compound over time.

预计到2031年，死亡人数将超过出生人数。 Deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031

预计到2031年，死亡人数将超过出生人数。
Deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031