谷歌未能向1000万土耳其地震受害者发出预警。
Google failed to warn 10M of Turkey earthquake

原始链接: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77v2kx304go

谷歌的Android地震预警系统(AEA)在2023年土耳其毁灭性地震期间未能及时发出关键预警,尽管该系统已上线并覆盖该地区超过70%的手机。超过五十万人收到了轻微震动“注意”警报,但针对最初7.8级地震,仅发出469条“采取行动”警告——旨在提供长达35秒的强震预警。 谷歌最初声称该系统“表现良好”,但研究表明该算法低估了地震的震级,将其记录为明显较弱。这意味着数百万身处高风险区域的人没有收到潜在的、显眼的“采取行动”警报。 灾后,谷歌修订了其算法,模拟结果现在显示,如果采用更新后的系统,本应发出1000万条“采取行动”警报。专家们对未能及时承认最初的失败以及可能依赖未经测试的技术而非成熟的国家系统表示担忧。谷歌坚持AEA是一种补充工具,并继续根据持续的分析改进该系统。

## 谷歌地震预警系统与批评 一篇BBC文章引发了Hacker News上关于谷歌在土耳其地震预警系统的讨论。虽然该系统在2023年2月毁灭性地震发生前几秒成功警报了500人,但未能触达可能从中受益的另外1000万人。 评论员们争论谷歌是否应该受到批评,指出警报系统在误报和漏报之间取得平衡的固有挑战。一些人认为谷歌因其并非 обязан提供的服务而受到不公正的指责,并且持续的警报可能导致麻痹。另一些人指出,谷歌将这些警报作为一项功能进行宣传,以此来证明智能手机的成本,从而创造了功能性的期望,尤其是在紧急情况下。 进一步的讨论显示,谷歌已经根据事件数据改进了算法,并且一位产品经理淡化了警报不足的问题,建议人们“没有注意到”它们。人们也对用户对该系统的控制权表示担忧,特别是覆盖“请勿打扰”设置的问题。许多人认为,投资应该优先加强国家应急基础设施,而不是依赖私营科技公司。
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原文

Google has admitted its earthquake early warning system failed to accurately alert people during Turkey's deadly quake of 2023.

Ten million people within 98 miles of the epicentre could have been sent Google's highest level alert - giving up to 35 seconds of warning to find safety.

Instead, only 469 "Take Action" warnings were sent out for the first 7.8 magnitude quake.

Google told the BBC half a million people were sent a lower level warning, which is designed for "light shaking", and does not alert users in the same prominent way.

The tech giant previously told the BBC the system had "performed well".

The system works on Android devices, which make up more than 70% of the phones in Turkey.

More than 55,000 people died when two major earthquakes hit South East Turkey on 6 February 2023, more than 100,000 were injured. Many were asleep in buildings that collapsed around them when the tremors hit.

Google's early warning system was in place and live on the day of the quakes – however it underestimated how strong the earthquakes were.

"We continue to improve the system based on what we learn in each earthquake", a Google spokesperson said.

Google's system, named Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA), is able to detect shaking from a vast number of mobile phones that use the Android operating system.

Because earthquakes move relatively slowly through the earth, a warning can then be sent out.

Google's most serious warning is called "Take Action", which sets off a loud alarm on a user's phone - overriding a Do Not Disturb setting - and covering their screen.

This is the warning that is supposed to be sent to people when stronger shaking is detected that could threaten human life.

AEA also has a less serious "Be Aware" warning, designed to inform users of potential lighter shaking - a warning that does not override a device on Do Not Disturb.

The Take Action alert was especially important in Turkey due to the catastrophic shaking and because the first earthquake struck at 04:17, when many users would have been asleep. Only the more serious alert would have woken them.

In the months after the earthquake the BBC wanted to speak to users who had been given this warning - initially with aims to showcase the effectiveness of the technology.

But despite speaking to people in towns and cities across the zone impacted by the earthquake, over a period of months, we couldn't find anyone who had received a more serious Take Action notification before the quake struck. We published our findings later that year.

Google researchers have written in the Science journal details of what went wrong, citing "limitations to the detection algorithms".

For the first earthquake, the system estimated the shaking at between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale (MMS) when it was actually a 7.8.

A second large earthquake later that day was also underestimated, with the system this time sending Take Action alerts to 8,158 phones and Be Aware alerts to just under 4 million users.

After the earthquake Google's researchers changed the algorithm, and simulated the first earthquake again.

This time, the system generated 10 million Take Action alerts to those at most risk – and a further 67 million Be Aware alerts to those living further away from the epicentre

"Every earthquake early warning system grapples with the same challenge - tuning algorithms for large magnitude events," Google told the BBC.

But Elizabeth Reddy, Assistant Professor at Colorado School of Mines says it is concerning it took more than two years to get this information.

"I'm really frustrated that it took so long," she said

"We're not talking about a little event - people died - and we didn't see a performance of this warning in the way we would like."

Google says the system is supposed to be supplementary and is not a replacement for national systems.

However some scientists worry countries are placing too much faith in tech that has not been fully tested.

"I think being very transparent about how well it works is absolutely critical," Harold Tobin, Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, told the BBC.

"Would some places make the calculation that Google's doing it, so we don't have to?"

Google researchers say post-event analysis has better improved the system - and AEA has pushed out alerts in 98 countries.

The BBC has asked Google how AEA performed during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar, but has yet to receive a response.

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