Tesla's robotaxi reveal and Waymo's rapid expansion across U.S. cities have dominated the conversation around autonomous vehicles (AVs) in North America. A new note from Goldman Sachs provides a framework showing that AVs have officially entered the commercialization phase in ridesharing and trucking, and their proliferation into the real economy is poised for hyperscale well into the 2030s.

"There are already over 1,500 Waymo robotaxis on roads in the U.S. Tesla hopes to begin commercial robotaxi operations in June in Austin," a team of Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney wrote in a note to clients Monday morning. 

The U.S. rideshare market, currently valued at $58 billion, is expected to swell to over $336 billion by 2030. Delaney estimates robotaxis will capture about $7 billion of that market, representing 8% of total rideshare bookings. While this figure may seem modest, it represents a significant leap from the $300 million projected for 2025, with a nearly 90% compound annual growth rate.

Waymo, Google's AV subsidiary, leads the autonomous vehicle space with 1,500 vehicles operating across various metro areas nationwide, logging over 250,000 paid rides per week. Those cities include Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, with plans to expand into seven U.S. cities by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Tesla is preparing to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, later this week. 

Delaney forecasted, "With this rollout from Waymo, coupled with planned launches from others including Tesla and Zoox, we expect over 1.8K commercial autonomous vehicles in the US by the end of 2025 and 35K in 2030." 

Some early signs of AV scaling include Waymo's rollout...

Delaney noted that "falling costs are another key enabler" in the AV space for companies to hyperscale their robotaxi fleets well into the 2030s. 

Driving costs per mile for AVs have also been sliding...

Shifting gears, the analysts turn to AV-enabled Class 8 trucks—heavy-duty vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) exceeding 33,000 pounds. These include 18-wheelers, dump trucks, and other large freight haulers that move goods across America's highways.

They noted that while AV trucks are a small part of the Class 8 fleet today, their potential to lower costs and extend operational hours (free from driver time limits) is compelling. Goldman forecasts 25,000 AV trucks on the road by 2030, capturing $18 billion of the freight market—just under 3% of total trucked miles. 

Here's the latest on the robotaxi industry:

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