人工智能时代“工作”的含义
What “working” means in the era of AI apps

原始链接: https://a16z.com/revenue-benchmarks-ai-apps/

生成式AI极大地加速了初创公司的发展。虽然Lovable和Cursor等杰出案例占据了媒体头条,但平均而言,AI公司也超过了AI时代之前的基准。企业级初创公司现在在其第一年就能达到200万美元的年经常性收入(ARR)中位数,而消费类公司则达到420万美元。A轮融资发生得更快,在实现盈利后的8-9个月内即可完成。 然而,“优秀”和“杰出”初创公司之间的差距正在扩大,顶级公司在第一年都保持着快速增长。虽然快速的收入增长对于早期融资至关重要,但参与度和留存率等传统指标对于后期融资仍然至关重要。 有趣的是,消费类AI公司现在比AI时代之前的公司更早地产生了可观的收入。这是因为模型训练成本导致了早期盈利,以及用户愿意为引人注目的产品付费。一旦转化,这些用户表现出良好的留存率。简而言之,AI时代为构建应用层软件公司提供了前所未有的机遇。

Hacker News 上的一篇讨论深入剖析了 a16z 关于 AI 对创业公司成功影响的文章。该文章声称 AI 的采用加速了其投资组合公司的收入增长,但评论者批评文章缺乏具体的证据和分析。许多人认为这篇文章夸大了 AI 的好处,将其与无代码的炒作周期相提并论,并质疑在高计算成本下 AI 驱动的增长的可持续性。人们对 AI 是否是唯一驱动力表示怀疑,认为外部因素如害怕错过(FOMO)或劳动效率起着更大的作用。一些用户还认为,文章关注的是 AI *功能*,而不是真正 *基于* AI 构建的创业公司。一个普遍的情绪是对 VC 驱动的炒作表示怀疑,尤其是在之前关于加密货币和元宇宙的夸大宣传之后。许多人得出结论:财务上的可行性,而不仅仅是 AI 集成,将决定长期的成功,投资者有责任记住这一点。

原文

One of the most common refrains in the generative AI era is that “startups are growing faster than ever” — often with fewer resources. Some notable examples? Per company metrics, Lovable hit $50 million in revenue in just six months, Cursor reported $100 million in revenue in its first year, and Gamma reached $50 million in revenue on less than $25 million raised. 

But for the average AI company (not the top 0.1%), what does growth really look like? Pre-AI, a common benchmark for best-in-class enterprise startups was $1 million in ARR in its first 12 months. Consumer companies, by contrast, often delayed monetization well beyond their first year, typically waiting until they had built a base of millions (or tens of millions) of users to monetize through ads. 

Based on data across hundreds of companies we’ve seen over the last 18 months, we can definitively say these metrics have shifted. Here’s what we’re seeing among the companies we’ve spent significant time with: 

1. Faster revenue, faster rounds.

Our data backs up the idea that we’re in a new era of startup growth. The median enterprise company in our sample set reached more than $2 million in ARR in its first year, raising a Series A just nine months post-monetization. Median consumer companies performed even better, reaching $4.2 million in ARR and raising an A round within eight months. What was once considered “best in class” — the $0 to $1 million ARR ramp — is now on the lower end of growth we’re seeing. 

Given the rapid growth both AI-native B2B and B2C companies are achieving between Seed and Series A, startups looking to raise venture capital need a strong velocity story. If not yet in live commercial traction, then certainly in shipping speed and product iteration. Speed is becoming a moat. 

2. The gap between “good” and “exceptional” is growing.

While the bar has been raised across the board, top performers are really pulling away. Many of these breakout companies continue to pick up steam through their first year, rather than seeing growth start to slow (as we often saw in the pre-AI era). There’s demand from both enterprise and consumer users for great products, so it’s worth swinging for the fences.

It’s not just about revenue — other metrics still matter. When evaluating companies at the Series A stage, we often have no more than 12 months of usage and retention data. Later-stage financing rounds will likely rely more heavily on traditional software metrics; rapid top-line growth won’t be enough to compensate for low engagement or high churn. 

3. Consumer companies are now…real (revenue-generating!) businesses.

Somewhat surprisingly, the revenue benchmarks for B2C are outpacing those for B2B. This is partially because consumer companies have a different “shape” now. One-third of the consumer companies in our sample raised significant funding to train their own models — and many see a massive revenue jump following new model releases. These spikes often resemble step function growth, which can later plateau until the next release. 

While conversion to paid may be lower for generative AI B2C businesses compared to their pre-AI counterparts, our data suggests that once users do convert, they retain just as well. 

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TL;DR: Startups are working faster than ever, and both businesses and consumers are demonstrating high willingness to pay for new products. After combing through the data, we believe there’s never been a better time to build an application-layer software company.

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