人工智能的反弹会蔓延到街头吗?
Will the AI backlash spill into the streets?

原始链接: https://gabrielweinberg.com/p/will-the-ai-backlash-spill-into-the

人工智能驱动的失业问题日益严重,DuckDuckGo用户的反馈反映出对人工智能日益增长的反弹。虽然隐私和错误信息等问题尚未引发大规模抗议,但失业可能会引发持续的社会动荡,因为它影响到各党派和各个收入阶层的民生。皮尤研究中心的报告显示,人们普遍担心,尤其担心工作保障。 历史上的类似事件包括卢德运动和20世纪60年代对自动化的恐惧,尽管后者由于经济迅速复苏而没有导致严重的动乱。关键问题在于,人工智能能否创造足够多的新工作来抵消失业。即使是净就业人数不变,对失业工人的援助也至关重要。 各个行业的罢工已经表明了人们对自动化的担忧。反弹的程度取决于经济中断的规模和持续时间。虽然抗议活动可以影响选举,但它们对政策的直接影响好坏参半,需要持续的努力。一场类似于三角工厂火灾的现代事件可能会发生,因为可能会有两党支持变革。

Hacker News上的一篇讨论围绕着人工智能驱动的失业及其是否会导致社会动荡展开。一些评论者质疑文章中收银员风险最大的说法,他们提到自助结账的普遍存在以及对防止偷窃的担忧。一些人认为人工智能还不够先进,无法完全取代工人,而另一些人则指出,一些公司已经在使用自动化来减少员工数量,尤其是在白领工作中。关于人工智能是否会创造新的就业机会以及其益处是否会平均分配存在争议。一些人预测生产力提高和商品价格下降,而另一些人则担心财富和政治权力会集中在人工智能所有者手中,可能导致社会福利削减。讨论还涉及到与卢德分子运动的历史相似之处以及抗议活动影响政策的有效性。

原文

AI backlash is rising—I see it every day in DuckDuckGo user feedback. That’s why our AI features (Search Assist and Duck.ai) are private, useful, and optional.

Concern alone won’t flood the streets—but if AI wipes out paychecks fast, and Washington stalls, more sustained protests and strikes could follow.

An April 2025 Pew Research report found widespread AI concern across various topics—jobs, privacy, inaccurate information, loss of human connection, the environment, and bias—but I think jobs can potentially lead to a categorically different societal reaction.

  1. Cuts span industries, so outrage lands on both parties.

  2. Every income bracket—from cashiers to coders—takes a hit.

  3. Sudden, deep job cuts risk recession and years of high unemployment.

Privacy, inaccurate information, loss of human connection, and environmental harms are, of course, very real. Yet, each mirrors existing debates—data protection, misinformation, social-media outrage, and climate change—that have stirred headlines for years without sustained street action or sweeping federal reforms (our still-missing U.S. privacy law, for example). To be fair, climate activism has produced some huge U.S. marches—for example, 400,000 in NYC in 2014, 200,000 in D.C. in 2017, and 250,000 in NYC again in 2019—but these were single-day spikes rather than sustained efforts.

Bias is a little different. America did flood the streets after George Floyd in a more sustained manner, for many months, but major reforms stalled out once marches faded and partisan lines re-hardened. Job-loss protests have the potential to run even broader and longer because they could directly hit wallets across the partisan divide, for years on end.

The extent of the backlash depends on the size and duration of the economic disruption. As I showed in this Gallup-poll post, even most Republicans who believe tariffs will pay off say they’d tolerate at most one year of economic pain for those benefits. Patience for AI-driven job loss is likely just as thin, if not more so. If AI keeps unemployment high, backlash lasts until it recovers or Washington intervenes.

Two historical moments that resemble this pattern: When automated textile frames wiped out skilled jobs in the U.K. in the early 1800s, the Luddite riots turned violent enough (including killing a factory owner) that Parliament dispatched roughly 12,000 troops to restore order, which concluded with over a dozen executions. By contrast, in early-1960s America, still shaking off a recession and high unemployment, there was widespread fear that automation might be at least partially to blame and that it would cause high unemployment to persist. Ultimately, it spawned a presidential commission, but unemployment returned to normal relatively quickly, so the future everyone feared never materialized.

There remain many open questions, though, which I hope to explore more in future posts. For example…

Some jobs will clearly be displaced, which is already happening. But new ones will also be created. Will this be a large net negative, or will it be close to net neutral, similar to previous technology cycles? The public and “experts” are currently split on this question.

In our current survey, 64% of the public thinks AI will lead to fewer jobs over the next 20 years. Far fewer experts surveyed say the same (39%).

Even if job displacement is closer to net neutral, the displaced people aren’t likely to be the same people who get the new jobs. What, concretely, are we going to do for them? Historically, we haven’t done much, for example, for people who lost U.S. manufacturing jobs. We can do better this time. Interestingly, the recommendations from the 1960s-era presidential commission included income guarantees, relocation assistance, federal unemployment benefits, education subsidies, and government jobs.

If intervention happens, who foots the bill—general taxpapers or the AI “winners” best positioned to do so?

We’ve already seen several strikes in Hollywood, an auto-worker strike (concerning, in part, increased automation), and a dockworkers strike (with similar concerns). But these were scattered enough in time that they haven’t yet coalesced into a larger movement, similar to other scattered past protests. If future effects take many years to unfold across industries, then a critical mass may never form to create a true reform moment.

If millions of jobs are displaced, there will be some economic disruption, but it could look very different from the past depending on if AI produces significant growth and productivity benefits, and in what timeframe. For example, it seems possible (though I have no idea right now with what liklihood) that unemployment spikes, but its GDP effects are offset by AI growth tailwinds that prevent a recession.

I need to dig in more, but the short answer seems to indicate yes, in a few ways. They seem make the people who attend them more politically motivated, at least for that issue. As a result, if enough people go to them, then they can swing elections.

On average, a wave of liberal protesting in a congressional district can increase a Democratic candidate’s vote share by 2% and reduce a GOP candidate’s share by 6%. A wave of conservative protests, like those by the Tea Party in 2010, will on average reduce the Democratic vote share by 2% and increase the Republican share by 6%.

But, can they actually change policy directly? Here, it seems pretty mixed, like in the examples mentioned above. The potential seems there, though, if they are large and sustained enough.

Recent protest movements seem more one-sided politically (e.g., climate change, Occupy Wall Street, Tea Party, etc.). Mid-century protests were arguably similar (civil rights movement, Vietnam War protests, etc.), though they were sustained for much longer and ultimately swayed public opinion and accelerated change. A better parallel here, though, would be something that is clearly bipartisan from the start, more squarely on an economic issue, and resulted in swift reforms. Protests after the 1911 Triangle Factory Fire that sparked rapid labor reforms are a candidate.

If others come to mind, or if you have thoughts on these other questions, please let me know.

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