History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern - a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.
Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bust" part of its cycle - where the status quo falls apart - often chaotically - and is replaced by a brand new order.
Well, in its first 100 days, the Trump administration has certainly made big - and some would say disruptive or even chaotic - strides in its attempt to replace the previous status quo with a new playbook, both domestically and internationally.
As 'Thoughtful Money' blog's Adam Taggart asks in the following great interview:
Neil Howe affirms that the global shift from globalization to nationalism, driven by Trump’s America First policies and parallel movements (e.g., Meloni in Italy, Modi in India), is a hallmark of the fourth turning.
This trend, accelerating since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, reflects a rejection of the U.S.-subsidized world order, with Trump criticizing globalization as a “bad deal” for America.
Howe notes widespread support for re-industrialization and immigration control, aligning with populist demands for economic sovereignty and cultural identity, a classic fourth turning dismantling of established systems.
Howe explains that this bust phase, characterized by the collapse of the status quo and the rise of a new order, is not limited to the United States but is synchronized globally, with populist, nationalist, and authoritarian movements emerging worldwide.
"The trend in the west certainly and now the rest of the world has been we've seen a synchronization of these turnings… it's global. It's now global."
He highlights the Trump administration’s disruptive policies - such as tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and deregulation - as emblematic of Fourth Turning chaos...
"Trump is a necessary figure… unleashing something pretty primal. Where it goes though, I don’t think even Trump understands."
...but notes inherent contradictions, particularly between trade protectionism and fiscal deficits.
"You cannot eliminate trade and therefore credit flows from the American economy while running up the deficit… We will literally have nothing left to invest in capital spending in America."
Howe predicts increased volatility, legal battles, and potential crises (economic, political, or geopolitical) that could catalyze major institutional reshaping by the 2030s, when a new "First Turning" might emerge.
"History also suggests we need some sort of conflict… We need something that would really ensure that people actually reshape institutions for a reason."
He advises investors to focus on absolute returns, hedge against volatility, and prioritize assets like commodities, gold, defense, and infrastructure, while emphasizing personal resilience to navigate the turbulent period ahead.
"Pay most attention to [financial professionals] that talk a lot about absolute return and don’t get sidetracked in looking at the relative return to other indexes."
he “new golden age” is unlikely to emerge directly from Trump’s agenda due to legal battles (e.g., tariff laws, impoundment) and economic fallout (e.g., recession risks from labor cuts). Neil sees history resolving contradictions, potentially forcing fiscal discipline by weaning America off foreign credit, a painful but necessary step.
Trump’s legacy will be a transformed, protected America, but the fourth turning’s resolution—via domestic implosion or external conflict—will shape the 2030s first turning, with public mobilization determining the new order’s form.
Watch the full interview below:
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