加州上调人口增长预期,原因是移民激增。
California Revises Population Growth Upward, Citing Immigration Surge

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/california-revises-population-growth-upward-citing-immigration-surge

加州人口正在回升,主要原因是国际移民人数大幅上调。州财政部报告称,2024年人口增长10.8万,总数约为3950万,这得益于此前对2021年至2024年间入境移民人数低估了277,468人。虽然国内人口外流仍在持续,但速度正在放缓,自然增长(出生人数减去死亡人数)也为人口增长做出了贡献。 纽瑟姆州长将人口涌入归因于加州持久的吸引力和价值观。然而,尽管人口增长,但人们仍然担忧加州的财政健康状况。早些时候的人口普查数据显示,由于高收入居民外流,个人收入净损失240亿美元。此外,立法分析办公室警告说,由于支出超过收入增长,到2026年,年度赤字可能高达300亿美元,这表明人口增加可能无法解决潜在的财政问题。


原文

California has significantly revised its population estimates upward, crediting a larger-than-expected influx of international immigrants for reversing recent trends of population decline, according to Just the News.

Governor Gavin Newsom framed the shift as a testament to California’s enduring appeal: “People from across the nation and the globe are coming to the Golden State to pursue the California Dream, where rights are protected and people are respected.”

According to the state Department of Finance (DOF), the population grew by 108,000 in 2024, bringing the total to approximately 39.5 million residents. The key driver was an upward revision of immigration figures, with 277,468 more immigrants arriving between 2021 and 2024 than previously estimated. This shift turned 2023’s reported population decline into net growth and further boosted 2024’s numbers.

Meanwhile, domestic outmigration continues but is slowing. The DOF reported that California lost 197,016 residents to other states in 2024, down from 249,308 in 2023. Natural increase—births minus deaths—also contributed, rising modestly from 105,550 to 114,805 over the same period.

The Just the News report says that out of California’s 482 cities, 241 saw population gains, 240 experienced declines, and one—Morro Bay—held steady. Among the state’s ten most populous counties, only Contra Costa in the East Bay reported a net loss, shedding just 24 residents.

Despite the population rebound, questions remain about the state’s fiscal outlook. Earlier Census data revealed that those leaving California generally earn more than those arriving, with outmigration from mid-2021 to mid-2022 causing a net loss of $24 billion in personal income. This demographic shift raises concerns that increased population won't necessarily translate into higher tax revenues.

Compounding the issue, California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office warned in November 2024 that the state has “no capacity” for new spending and is on track for annual deficits rising to $30 billion by 2026, as expenditures outpace stagnant revenue growth.

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