研究发现,公共研发预算削减将严重损害经济。
Study finds that budget cuts to public R&D would significantly hurt the economy

原始链接: https://impa.american.edu/costs-of-cutting-scientific-research/

一项新的分析表明,联邦政府对科学研究的资金可能面临削减,这将带来严重的负面经济后果。削减公共研发支出可能大幅降低GDP,25%的削减幅度将与大萧条时期的经济衰退相当。50%的削减可能使普通美国人的收入比历史GDP趋势低大约1万美元。此外,研发投资减少还会对联邦收入产生负面影响,25%的削减将导致每年收入减少约4.3%,而50%的削减将导致每年收入减少8.6%。该分析强调了公共研发在推动经济增长和创造政府收入方面的关键作用,并着重指出了削减科学研究资金的长期成本。

一项研究表明,公共研发预算的削减可能会严重损害经济,引发Hacker News上的热议。人们担心这可能导致失业,并减少对NIH等科研机构和政府承包商的资助。评论员们就公共研发支出的价值和最佳水平展开了辩论,质疑私营企业能否有效地替代政府资金。一些人认为,私营公司优先考虑有利可图的研究,而不是社会需求,并以抗生素研发为例。另一些人则对宏观经济学研究表示怀疑,并质疑公共研发的效率。政治观点也浮现出来,一些人责怪特定政府的反智政策,另一些人则指出政府资金中所谓的腐败问题。该讨论强调了公共和私营研发、经济激励和政治意识形态之间复杂的相互作用。

原文

Federal agencies such as NIH and NSF are critical sources of funding for basic and applied scientific research. Recently, many of these agencies have seen their research operations frozen or downsized. This brief describes a new analysis of the macroeconomic costs of cutting federal funding for scientific R&D. The brief finds that budget cuts to public R&D would significantly hurt the economy in the long run, with large negative effects on GDP, investment, and government revenue. A 25 percent cut to public R&D spending would reduce GDP by an amount comparable to the decline in GDP during the Great Recession. Cutting annual public R&D spending in half would making the average American approximately $10,000 poorer (in today’s dollars) than the value implied by the historical trend in GDP. Cutting public R&D would also shrink federal government revenue. A 25 percent cut in R&D would decrease revenue by approximately 4.3 percent annually, while a 50 percent cut would decrease it by 8.6 percent annually.

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