A ceasefire has been called in Trump’s trade war… well in every country except China where he materially escalated. Was this 4D chess or Trump caving to the Bond Vigilantes? And more importantly, what’s next…
Visit the ZeroHedge homepage tonight at 6pm ET for our Premium Tariff Aftermath Debate with HSBC’s head of EM and global strategy Alistair Pinder and Satori Insight’s Matt King (formerly Citi’s top global strategist). The event will be moderated by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington. Panelists will assess the post-tariff carnage and analyze how the next few months could play out.
Listen to these banking heavyweights in long-form. Guys you typically only get for 5 minutes in between commercials on Bloomberg and CNBC.
The Tariff War so far…
The Opening Salvo
- Trump invokes IEEPA on Feb 1, 2025, imposing:
- 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada (except 10% on Canadian energy).
- Additional 10% on Chinese goods, on top of existing tariffs.
- 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada (except 10% on Canadian energy).
- Justified as response to “extraordinary threats” like immigration and fentanyl.
- Trump warns of further hikes if there's retaliation.
Retaliation and Escalation
- Canada fires back: 25% tariffs on $107B in U.S. goods—hits bourbon, appliances, and GOP swing states.
- Mexico vows to retaliate—calls Trump’s move “economic aggression.”
- China targets the U.S. heartland—15% tariffs on soybeans, pork, beef, and chicken.
Broadening the Battlefield
- On Feb 10, Trump drops the hammer again:
- 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum—no exemptions.
- 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum—no exemptions.
- EU irate.
China’s Counterpunch
- China escalates:
- New tariffs on U.S. agriculture.
- Launches trade investigations into American exports.
- New tariffs on U.S. agriculture.
- Trade diplomacy frozen.
The Nuclear Option: Liberation Day
- April 2, 2025: Trump dubs it Liberation Day.
- Broad 10% tariff on 100+ countries.
- China gets hit with 34%, Japan 24%, Korea 25%.
- Broad 10% tariff on 100+ countries.
- Existing tariffs stay in place—effective rates skyrocket.
Market Turmoil and Temporary Reprieve
- Markets crash: S&P and Nasdaq tank.
- Trump blinks—90-day tariff pause excluding China.
- China tariffs climb to 125%.
- China tariffs climb to 125%.
- Markets bounce hard: S&P +9.5%, Nasdaq +12%. Panic buying ensues.
We’ll see you tonight at 6pm ET. Subscribe to ZeroHedge premium so you don’t miss out.
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