土耳其在沙特阿拉伯举行美泽会晤之际,主动提出派遣维和部队。
Turkey Offers Peacekeeping Troops As US-Zelensky Meeting Unfolds In Saudi Arabia

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-offers-peacekeeping-troops-us-zelensky-meeting-unfolds-saudi-arabia

在沙特阿拉伯举行的美国和乌克兰代表团会晤期间,土耳其提出派遣军队前往乌克兰,但需以国际协议和土耳其国家利益为前提。此举对一向在北约和俄罗斯之间保持平衡的土耳其而言不同寻常,正值欧洲官员努力应对美国可能撤兵的情况下如何支持乌克兰之际。 这一提议因俄罗斯反对任何北约军队进入乌克兰而变得更加复杂。国防政策文件估计,欧洲需要将其军事力量增加相当于30万美国士兵的规模,以弥补美国撤兵造成的损失,而特朗普则试图通过一项快速和平计划来避免这种情况。 泽连斯基预计将在沙特会谈中提出停火建议,而白宫则敦促在乌克兰举行新的选举。这些事态发展都发生在为寻找冲突解决方案而持续努力的背景下。


原文

At a moment that American and Ukrainian delegations are meeting in Saudi Arabia, which includes President Zelensky's presence, Turkey has offered that it is willing to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, according to Reuters.

"Turkiye remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty while advocating for a peaceful resolution," a statement said. The offer is unusual given that Turkey under Erdogan has long maintained a delicate balancing act between NATO and Russian interests.

Via Bloomberg

Turkey is of course NATO's lone alliance member which straddles two continents - Europe and Asia - and extends across the entire southern shore of the Black Sea.

The report notes that any potential Turkish deployment would be contingent on international agreements and whether it meets Turkey's national interests.

While the Kremlin has welcomed Turkey's diplomatic engagement on the Ukraine war, which included for example hosting talks in the opening months of the conflict, Russia has already condemned the possibility of any NATO troops being positioned in Ukraine, even if they are dubbed 'peacekeepers'.

Turkey's troop offer has been made in the context of European officials trying to figure out how to stay the course in supporting Ukraine as the Trump administration withdraws the United States.

There is also the ultimate question of how Europe and NATO would 'defend' Europe without the US. One recent defense policy paper offers the following estimates:

The current assumption of NATO military planners (RAND, 2024) is that in case of a Russian attack on a European NATO country, 100,000 US troops stationed in Europe would be rapidly augmented by up to 200,000 additional US troops, concentrated in US armoured units best suited for the East European battlefield.

A realistic estimate may therefore be that an increase in European capacities equivalent to the fighting capacity of 300,000 US troops is needed, with a focus on mechanized and armored forces to replace US army heavy units. This translates to roughly 50 new European brigades. 

But this is precisely why President Trump is pushing a quick peace plan - the 'alternative' could be a European-wide WW3 scenario. Trump officials have said the president wants to avoid this at all costs.

Zelensky is meanwhile expected to present a ground and air ceasefire in the context of Saudi talks, but is unlikely to offer any territorial concessions at this point. Media headlines are describing that Zelensky is pushing for a partial truce with Russia. The White House is at the same time urging that new elections be held in war-ravaged Ukraine.

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