NATO's new secretary-general is trying to talk tough ahead of Donald Trump taking office. Surely he knows Brussels is in for a rough ride, given that during the first Trump administration the president (rightly) ripped NATO member states for not paying their fair share in defense spending, while relying on Washington to shoulder the burden.
Mark Rutte has warned Trump in a Financial Times interview that if Ukraine is pressured into a 'bad' peace deal which is favorable to Moscow, then the United States and Europe would face a "dire threat" from Iran, China, and North Korea.
All of these 'rogue' states (in the lexicon of some Western leaders) have deepened their relations with Russia throughout the course of the nearly three-year long war in Ukraine. North Korea and Russia in particular even signed a defense pact last summer, resulting in some 10,000 North Korean soldiers being deployed to support the Russian side. All are also coordinating on circumventing US-led sanctions.
Like some pundits at hawkish US think tanks, Rutte tried to frame to outcome of the Ukraine war as of dire importance for Taiwan's freedom. According to FT:
Rutte noted the risks from Russia supplying missile technology to North Korea and cash to Iran. In an apparent reference to Taiwan, he said that Chinese President Xi Jinping "might get thoughts about something else in the future if there is not a good deal [for Ukraine]".
"We cannot have a situation where we have [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un and the Russian leader and Xi Jinping and Iran high-fiving because we came to a deal which is not good for Ukraine, because long-term that will be a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the US," Rutte told the FT in his first interview as head of the western military alliance.
Rutte had met with Trump a week-and-a-half ago at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. It was their first such meeting since Trump won the election on November 5.
Clearly the NATO chief tried to persuade Trump to essentially keep up the same muscular stance on Moscow as the Biden administration. It seems he tried to present the same 'domino' effect argument which hearkens back to the Cold War - which goes something like if 'X enemy is not stopped here, then Y enemy will also feel emboldened and seek military conquest' etc.
"Look at the missile technology which is now being sent from Russia into North Korea, which is posing a dire threat not only to South Korea, Japan, but also to the US mainland," Rutte said he told Trump, as quoted in FT.
"Iran is getting money from Russia in return for, for example, missiles, but also drone technology. And the money is being used to prop up Hizbollah and Hamas, but also steering conflict beyond the region," he had claimed.
"So the fact that Iran, North Korea, China and Russia are working so closely together . . . [means] these various parts of the world where conflict is, and have to be managed by politicians, are more and more getting connected," explained Rutte.
"And there is one Xi Jinping watching very carefully what comes out of this," he added, in apparent reference to Taiwan. "These were the points I made," the NTO leader stressed.
But we doubt that that Ukrainians young and old, tragically dying along the front lines in this horrific war of attrition, will care much about NATO and Western grand strategy regarding far-flung places like China or North Korea.