模型显示加勒比海骚乱威胁美国海湾能源综合体 
Models Show Caribbean Disturbance Threatens US Gulf Energy Complex 

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/models-show-caribbean-disturbance-threatens-us-gulf-energy-complex

加勒比海西南部形成了名为 Invest97L 的天气扰动。 预计它将在未来几天内发展成为热带低气压,并可能沿美国墨西哥湾沿岸登陆。 预测模型显示风暴将增强并沿古巴西北方向移动。 Invest97L 可能会在周三或周四达到热带风暴强度,给加勒比岛屿带来强降雨,并可能引发洪水。 影响区域包括主要海上石油/天然气平台和美国大部分炼油能力。 Invest97L 的确切轨迹和强度仍不确定,但监控其进展至关重要,因为它有可能影响墨西哥湾沿岸。

相关文章

原文

With the news cycle dominated by election coverage, let's shift gears and focus on developing tropical activity in the southwestern Caribbean. Forecast models are already showing a potential landfall along the US Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has designated the weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean as Invest97L.

"Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea," NHC wrote in a Sunday morning update. 

NHC noted, "Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea." 

Invest97L's formation odds are very high for the next couple of days:

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Computer forecast models show the storm will likely be organized in the coming days and will track northwest over Cuba, potentially making landfall across the US Gulf Coast.

"There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross wrote in a note

Norcross said, "A dense plume of tropical moisture is forecast to rotate north with the potential storm. This will enhance the flooding threat on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico beginning Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek."

The potential impact area is home to major offshore oil/gas platforms across the Gulf Coast and about 60% of the US refining capacity. 

The track and intensity of Invest97L are still subject to change and should be monitored into the new week. 

联系我们 contact @ memedata.com