绘制全球房地产泡沫风险图

绘制全球房地产泡沫风险图
Mapping Global Real Estate Bubble Risks

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mapping-global-real-estate-bubble-risks

利率上升和经济不确定性导致全球主要城市实际房价下跌和房地产市场放缓。这缓解了香港、伦敦和纽约等城市的泡沫风险。然而，奢侈品市场的强劲需求和有利的经济状况加剧了迈阿密和洛杉矶的泡沫风险。迈阿密排名最高，与美国其他大都市相比，由于海滨房产有限且负担能力有限，实际房价自 2019 年以来上涨了 50%。东京紧随其后，在宽松的货币政策和经济稳定的推动下，房地产估值居高不下。尽管没有进入泡沫领域，但在人口增长和交易量的推动下，迪拜的房价已大幅上涨。相比之下，伦敦、香港、巴黎和多伦多的泡沫风险随着房价下跌而减少。

In many major cities, real home prices have declined as high interest rates are dampening demand.

Simultaneously, property markets are slowing due to tough financing conditions and rising construction costs. As a result, housing bubble risks have eased in cities like Hong Kong, London, and New York. However, strong demand in the luxury market and a booming stock market are fueling bubble risks in cities like Miami and Los Angeles.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the cities with the highest real estate bubble risk, based on the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.

Methodology

To analyze real estate bubble risk, UBS looked at the following factors across 25 major cities:

Price-to-income ratio
Price-to-rent ratio
Change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio
Change in construction-to-GDP ratio
City-to-country price ratio

More specifically, bubble risk refers to the likelihood of a significant price correction due to distortions in global property markets

Miami Ranks Highest for Housing Bubble Risk

With real housing prices increasing nearly 50% since the end of 2019, Miami has the highest bubble risk across cities analyzed.

This has pushed the price-to-income ratio higher, as buyers compete for limited waterfront luxury properties. At the same time, the city’s relative affordability compared to other major U.S. metros, along with no state income tax and a favorable climate, has fueled demand.

Ranking in second is Tokyo, one of the most unaffordable cities in the world.

Ultra-loose monetary policy and economic stability has contributed to high property valuations in Tokyo. Last year, a 646 square foot apartment cost 15 times more than an average skilled worker’s salary, exceeding levels seen in London and New York.

Although Dubai hasn’t entered bubble territory, home prices surged 17% between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024—the fastest increase among the cities analyzed. Over the past year, the city saw record transaction volumes and strong population growth as buyers flocked to this global financial hub.

By contrast, a number of cities saw their bubble risk decline as real home values dropped, including London, Hong Kong, Paris, and Toronto.

To learn more about this topic from a housing affordability perspective, check out this graphic on the least affordable property markets around the world.