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| There are quite a few employees in Toulouse that don't speak French, the company is very international. That being said I agree that daily life is much easier if you speak at least a little bit. |
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| If 90% of startups fail, why would you think winning wasn't mostly chance? Regardless of how many people work hard and grind, you can still fail (and most do, that's just life). Some are more lucky than others, and capital begets capital. Once you've "won" enough, it becomes much harder to lose, even if you make terrible forward decisions and run off the inertia of past wins (Twitter). Bezos built Amazon, but also has sunk somewhere between $10B and $20B into Blue Origin and it is still not terribly successful, for example, and demonstrates that even with resources and skill that success is potentially out of reach.
So, while I think the startup model is a fine way for investors to get exposure to an asset class that is the equivalent of 0DTE options, for the startup ecosystem to enable participants to play in the fiat that falls from those investment decisions, and perhaps some value to be generated, I would hazard that the model would not scale to meet the needs of the aerospace and defense marketplace at this time. All that is needed is skilled engineers and manufacturing practitioners to be enabled to do their best work, while keeping out of their way. Airbus demonstrates this, imho. They employ almost 150k workers, and successfully deliver products to customers that aren't fraught with manufacturing defects. They also have a book of work into the next decade, demonstrating customer confidence in the product and the org. https://luisazhou.com/blog/startup-failure-statistics/ https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/billionaires-and-the-evolution... |
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| > Also, is it viable to produce something like the A320 in low quantities when airlines need fleets in the hundreds?
Bombardier thought so, and did so! They developed and introduced the C-series aircraft to compete with smaller 737s and A320/A319. After introduction, Boeing fucked them over so hard that they sold the aircraft program after introduction to Airbus for a token sum. Airbus now builds and sells the C-series as the A220. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSeries_dumping_petition_by_Bo... |
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| And it went right into the little shelf in many Canadians' heads of "Canadian companies destroyed by the USA". Mauldite en soit trestoute la lignye. |
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| How much of that time was actual engineering-tradeoff decision-making and how much of that was working in a large corporation with abundant communication overhead? |
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| I'm betting a lot of that is reviews, approval, documentation, testing, re-testing etc - but it may be required for building a safe aircraft, and for getting it licenced to fly. |
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| Computers used to be very, very expensive. Residential telephone lines were acquired through mortgage a couple decades ago in my country so being expensive now doesn't mean expensive forever. |
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| > It will also take demand from existing airlines making fares lighter for everyone else.
That's not how airline economics work. The first class passengers (the ones who could afford to leave for supersonic) subsidize the economy seats[1]. If they left you would probably see worse prices, worse amenities or both. There are airlines that don't have business or first class seats (e.g. Spirit), and they're generally a terrible experience. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-class-vs-coach-a-game-of-... |
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| The flipside of this is that the passengers in the back, while not as profitable in the "$/sqft" equation, are what merit the airline buying a 777-300 or A350.
If all your focus is on those premium passengers, then you don't need as big an aircraft, and you end up with things beginning to approach JSX's (https://www.jsx.com/home/search) mode of operations. |
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| No doubt, Big Tech prints money and absorbs all available talent. Boeing's troubles are surely compounded by having all the best new talent hired away from them, because Big Tech pays much better. |
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| I suggest you come over to the UK.
I know several guys with postgraduate STEM degrees and 10 years of development experience who can’t even get interviews. It’s very bad here. |
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| Solution: for e supremacy of compliance with regulations over fiscal performance. You have to be able to check all of the boxes reliably before we can talk about innovating or optimizing. |
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| They hired the lead prosecutor that cut them a deal. To be precise a Boeing criminal defence firma hired her after she left the Justice department.
It's the American way. |
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| > Boeing’s lead corporate criminal defense law firm is Kirkland & Ellis.
Cox, the lead prosecutor in the Boeing case, left the Justice Department earlier this year.
And last month she joined Kirkland & Ellis as a partner in its Dallas office.
It looks like the firm bought the prosecutor, resulting in a win for its client. How could this be prevented, though? Politicians can't be trusted with oversight like this--they would use it to punish prosecutors and would inevitably further politicize the Justice Dept. https://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/news/200/lead-boeing-... |
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| Once you start thinking of Boeing as a government agency with less oversight that poses as a for-profit corporation, a lot of things start to make more sense. Including what you wrote about. |
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| Debatable. For all the complaints about regulation, there's lead in your cinnamon and filth in your deli meats. Listeriosis kills.
The regulators are under-resourced, if anything. |
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| Not really, the negotiation team gets the best deal that can get that doesn't involving going on strike and they present that to the union which is then better informed for their vote. |
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| Do you have any more information on that? I worked for GE in the past and would like to do so again; however, I'd avoided them because it seemed like they'd been run into the ground. |
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| In your profile it says you work for some company, do the founders know you want to expropriate their company? Those damn kulaks, feasting on the fruits of your labor. |
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| > A general strike means the labor class ... stop working in order to put extreme pressure on the group of people who do control those contracts and who do control capital.
> Such a system ... should be Deconstructed as rapidly as possible with the expropriation of all that capital (emphasis added) The result, predictably, is that unions lose all their leverage against the investor class (which no longer exists) and management (which is now the government). See, e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_unions_in_the_Soviet_Uni... ("[S]trikes were still more or less restricted... Unions remained partners of management in attempting to promote labor discipline, worker morale, and productivity."). |
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| Good! Fuck boeing the company/executives, the merger with McDonnell Douglas totally fucked that company!
Profits over safety and performance fucked boeing over |
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| Boeing spent $43B on stock buybacks between 2013 and 2019 while paying their CEO ~$30M/year.
> To support its share price, the company under McNerney poured billions into stock buybacks instead of investing profits into the kind of research and development needed to stay competitive. McNerney decided not to spend billions of dollars building a new plane to replace the 737. Instead, Boeing tweaked and updated the existing model and called it the 737 Max, outfitting it with larger, more efficient engines for increased economy. Compensating for the resulting instability was a secretive automated system called MCAS that would adjust the plane’s pitch without input from the pilot. > McNerney also fought to deeply cut costs. On his watch, the company opened its first non-unionized aircraft production line and initiated a program called “Partnering for Success” that pushed suppliers to cut their prices by 15 percent or more. Many feared that squeezing suppliers would harm the quality of their components, but McNerney was determined to recoup the cost of the 787’s development; if the subcontractors complained, they could find their work taken away from them, as happened to landing-gear-maker United Technologies Aerospace Systems. > McNerney retired in 2015, handpicking his successor, president and COO Dennis Muilenburg. Over the next three years, Boeing’s stock price more than doubled as it sold new planes the world over. (As Bloomberg News reported, Muilenberg and McNerney “had personal reasons to emphasize productivity and cost-cutting” because their compensation was tied to share performance. Together they took $209 million in total pay over seven years.) https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/boeing-planes-proble... |
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| This is really the key - there's a ocean of difference between "we manufacture literally nothing" and "we don't manufacture/assemble as much as we could". |
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| Roughly 2.2 trillion on the credit card for Afghanistan alone. That's without the interest that will be paid on it. Your grandkids children will be paying for that war. |
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| The only president in my lifetime to not start any wars isn't really liked by either the democrats or the establishment republicans. Both parties are big fans of losing wars for some reason. |
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| Reading a bit more into the war started by Biden against the Houthis, I... didn't quite realize the Navy had straight up admitted we are weak and useless.
>“We’re sort of on the verge of the Houthis being able to mount the kinds of attacks that the U.S. can’t stop every time, and then we will start to see substantial damage. … If you let it fester, the Houthis are going to get to be a much more capable, competent, experienced force.” https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/16/navy-fac... Worth noting, this is an entire USN carrier strike group. This is simply embarassing. |
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| Exactly correct. Good time to skim https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willow_Run.
Years of startup problems but when it finally started humming they were building a B-24 every 63 minutes! In the meantime existing factories were winning the war. As Americans we tend to glorify the industrial feats of WWII but the US government used a very heavy hand to pull that off. Public-private partnership is the preferred euphemism today but essentially we were a socialist economy. |
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| At its peak, the US had 40% of GDP going into the war. Forty percent!
Today the US military budget is 3.4% of GDP. Can you imagine it being ten times as much? |
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| > But if/when Boeing goes under who is going to vet all this NDI sitting in their portfolios? They’re just gonna spin it off to another buyer—consisting of who exactly? McDonnel Douglas? Elon Musk?
Idk, pick one that's American or closely allied [1]. Ideally not one of the three larger than Boeing. Worst case: audit and re-assign the contracts. We'll be better for it in the long run. And I'm not convinced it wouldn't result in quicker, higher-quality deliverables in the short. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defense_contractors |
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| > If the system was dysfunctional enough to prioritise short term profit seeking to this extent, then all a competitor would have to do to monopolise any market is do enough “long term thinking” to outlast all their failing competitors.
isn't this exactly what's going on with Boeing? > Airbus last year topped Boeing for the fifth straight year in the orders race, with 2,094 net orders and 735 delivered planes. Boeing had 1,314 net orders and delivered 528 aircraft.[0] I 100% agree the majority of investors don't seem to take the long view, and that's been the case for a while. [0] https://apnews.com/article/boeing-airbus-airline-safety-manu... |
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| Long term thinking is often incompatible with short term thinking. It doesn't matter if your company is long term sustainable if it's short term unsustainable. See dumping. |
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| Also, the only reasonable response to the saying of "oh if you don't give big bucks then you won't hire good talents" is "you mean the same talent that got you into this mess in the first place?" |
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| Whistleblowers were pointing out that the union workers in WA weren't performing quality work, like tightening bolts on plug doors. I'm guessing Boeing wanted the death to end. |
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| Its not about one or two guys its financial engineering culture that Wall St rewards. You can make bank without being an engineer anymore. 2008 meltdown has not changed the culture. |
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| Stock buybacks are mathematically identical to dividends if you work it out.
And yes, people track that, and yes taking loans to pay dividends is a favorite trick of dying companies. |
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| > Ordinary people have to sell assets to take advantage of appreciation
Not entirely true.. Ordinary people can take advantage of appreciation of their home value via a standard home equity loan. |
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| If you're talking about the US, then no, dividends are given special tax treatment at a reduced rate if they are "qualified dividends". If they aren't, then yes, they are taxed as regular income. |
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| > Stock buybacks used to be illegal in the States up until 1982. You can thank Raegan for that too
This is not true, but seems to come up a lot. I guess it makes for one of those fun "internet facts" that people like to repeat without any investigation. Bonus points for blaming Reagan. Stock buybacks were not illegal before 1982. If you sit down even think through it, it doesn't even make sense they were illegal. Just like issuing new shares (or doing a stock split), companies have legitimate business needs to buy back stock (reduce the quantity of outstanding shares). What happened in 1982 was that the government made Rule 10b-18, which outlined the "safe harbor" requirements for stock buybacks, where if followed, the company could not be found liable for stock manipulation. https://www.skadden.com/-/media/files/publications/2020/03/t... So stock buy backs were legal before 1982, but companies faced a risk of stock manipulation if they were reckless in how they did it. |
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| > So stock buy backs were legal before 1982, but companies faced a risk of stock manipulation if they were reckless in how they did it.
Sounds like a much better state of affairs. |
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| I wonder if a non-profit aerospace competitor would be viable, if this would force all profits to be invested back into the company. Or maybe a hybrid with some kind of profit cap. |
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| There is the real problem - we cannot evaluate how a CEO did today for another 10 years. Their job is to figure out where the company needs to be in 10 years and then get them there. |
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| I think it's extremely unlikely Boeing would be allowed to replace the union with scabs. The NLRB is not current business-friendly, I'm 99% sure they would find a way to forbid it. |
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| Management's constant attempts to undermine the union by firing people, outsourcing, moving entire factories and so forth have been more harmful than anything the union has done. |
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| 25% raise over four years after how many past years of frozen or low increased in wages and how many billions of share buybacks? If wage increases are below inflation you're taking a salary decrease. |
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| The people who decided to build the 737 max were sitting in Chicago at the time and now are sucking up to Washington politicians from Arlington County, Virginia |
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| I heard this was done on purpose because they'd need a lot more documentation if the system was important, and having redundancy would tip off the FAA to its importance. |
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| That 25% raise is on the amount agreed upon in their CBA in 2008. So they haven't really gotten a fully negotiated raise since 2008. You would probably reject that as well, unless you were desperate. |
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| Inequality continues to rise. Everyone around you is getting poorer. More unions would help stop it, or at least slow it down. We need more unions, not less. |
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| So when Boeing was shopping this summer for a new boss I was thinking the new boss would negotiate with the board worker pay increases related to the upcoming union contract.
It looks like the new boss was not smart enough to ask for a big worker pay increase (or maybe did not ask at all). Looks like not a good place for Boeing. BTW - there is another contract due in 2026. Hmm, another strike in a couple of years? Will Boeing be in a better place or worse place in 2 years? Interesting times ahead. https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-de... |
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| If you're interested in the union's proposals for those "long overdue measures", obviously you don't ask the WSJ.
> No one understands safety better than the very workers who meticulously build these planes every single day. That's why we must have a voice in the company's safety initiatives, as our livelihoods depend on it. Our Members are experts - they know how to build the best airplanes in the world, and they are the ones who will bring this company back on track. > > We spent Saturday drafting and proposing a new safety and quality framework that provides Union involvement and input into the Quality Management System, ensuring we protect the integrity of our production system. We know that the only way to ensure Boeing makes the right decisions is to have a seat at the table when critical decisions about quality, safety, and new product developments are made. Having a voice at the highest levels can and will influence changes. That's what we are trying to do in this contract. We are proposing these articles for the first time in our history and know that our Members' voice is critical in this effort. https://www.iam751.org/?zone=/unionactive/private_view_page.... |
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| > A 25% raise today is not the same thing as a 25% raise over the course of 4 years.
And is also different than 25% over 4 years while also removing a 4% per year annual bonus. |
No hate if they are optimizing for that, unions don't exist to serve corporate culture. Just want to be clear-eyed about what the union is seeking and (potentially separately), what it will take to make Boeing an American great again.