这是一张让日本政策制定者夜不能寐的图表

这是一张让日本政策制定者夜不能寐的图表
This Is The Chart That Keeps Japanese Policymakers Up At Night

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chart-keeps-japanese-policymakers-night

截至2020年，日本由于平均寿命高、出生率低，面临严重的人口老龄化。以老年抚养比（每100名劳动年龄人口中65岁以上的人数）衡量，日本的当前比率为54.5，远高于包括德国（41.4）和美国（31.3）在内的任何其他主要经济体。这表明，供养不断增长的老年人口的劳动人口减少，导致养老金、医疗保健和社会保障等资源紧张。除非实施通过增加移民或提高生育率等方法解决这一问题的政策，否则日本将面临经济停滞/衰退的风险。展望2050年，预测日本的OADR将达到80.7。为了应对这些趋势，日本旨在通过各种政府计划鼓励移民和移民工人涌入；然而，晚婚、家庭规模缩小和妇女加入劳动力等社会因素似乎并没有扭转人口老龄化的趋势（类似的问题影响着许多国家）。邻国意大利也面临类似的挑战，可能会从第三位攀升至第二位，OADR 达到 74.4。此外，由于独生子女政策的实施和有限的移民，到2050年，中国的OADR可能会超过美国，达到47.5。相反，目前全球人口最多的印度则拥有相对年轻的形象，导致 OADR 仅为 11.6。

原文

Japan has a demographic crisis that started in 2017 and picked up steam in 2020 and will accelerate from there into at least 2050... as a high life expectancy and a low birth rate has created an unprecedented aging population.

As a simple and effective measure of that 'crisis', we look at the old-age dependency ratio measures the number of people over the retirement age of 65 for every 100 working-age people.

The higher dependency ratio means fewer workers are supporting a growing number of retirees, which strains social security systems, healthcare, and pension funds. This situation could lead to economic stagnation or decline unless addressed through policy changes like increasing immigration or boosting birth rates.

In charts by creator Preyash Shad, Visual Capitalist looks at old-age dependency ratios of the top 10 economies based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Japan in Trouble

Japan has had a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio for several decades and has the highest ratio currently at 54.5.

Meanwhile, Germany is the runner-up in the top 10 economies with a distant second-place dependency ratio of 41.4.

At the same time, the United States maintains a relatively low old-age dependency, with a ratio of 31.3, which places it seventh among the top 10 economies.

India, now the world’s most populous country, has the lowest ratio of 11.6, in large part because it also has the youngest population.

Projections for 2050

By 2050, Japan will maintain the highest old-age dependency ratio of the group, moving from 54.5 to a staggering 80.7.

In an effort to head-off such a high ratio, Japan is has put policies in pace to attract young immigrants and migrant workers.

However, despite government incentives, cultural shifts towards later marriages, fewer children, and more women entering the workforce have not significantly reversed the trend in Japan (or many other nations).

Italy, which is facing similar demographic pressures, will move from distant third to a close second, moving from a ratio of 40.9 to 74.4.

China, because of the results of the one-child policy and low immigration, could surpass the U.S. by 2050 with a ratio of 47.5.