Tesla surprised investors last week with better-than-expected deliveries for the second quarter despite a global electric vehicle market downturn. New estimates from Fed Lambert, the editor-in-chief and main writer at Electrek, speculates that after parsing through the delivery report, "Tesla Cybertruck might have become the best-selling electric pickup truck in the US."
Lambert breaks down the math of his 2Q Cybertruck delivery estimate, given what he said is the company's "lack of transparency" and that it is "frustrating as it makes it harder to track the health of its vehicle programs."
Here's the math:
For Q2, the automaker confirmed deliveries of 21,551 "other models", which include Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and Tesla Semi sales.
However, we have a better idea of Tesla's Cybertruck deliveries in Q2 because of a couple of recalls.
With a few recalls last month, Tesla confirmed that it had produced 11,688 Cybertrucks as of June 6.
A previous recall confirmed that Tesla had produced 3,878 Cybertruck as of mid-April.
This is a difference of about 7,800 Cybertrucks. If you subtract a few for the last few weeks of April and then add a thousand or two for the rest of June, it is safe to assume that Tesla delivered between 8,000 and 9,000 Cybertrucks during the second quarter.
Lambert then crossed the Cybertruck delivery estimate in the quarter with Ford, which reported 7,902 F-150 Lightning in Q2, explaining, "Tesla Cybertruck might have become the best-selling electric pickup truck in the US," adding, "If it wasn't last quarter, it looks like it will be this quarter."
He noted that Rivian's R1T EV pickup truck deliveries in the quarter were "certainly below 7,000 units and most likely closer to 4,000 units."
Lambert's extended take on Cybertruck is that it will likely become (if not already) the best-selling EV truck in the world's largest economy:
I predicted that despite the Cybertruck coming a long time after the F150 Lightning and Rivian R1T, it would likely achieve higher volume than those quickly after its launch for the simple fact that Tesla is second to none when it comes to ramping up EV programs.
We can't confirm it because of the lack of transparency in Tesla's sale disclosure, but I think it's likely true that Cybertruck has become the best-selling electric pickup in the US right now.
Regarding demand, a ZH reader contacted us last week. They said their Cybertruck delivery date was moved up from the estimated second half of 2025 to August.
For some context, the reader paid $100 for the Cybertruck reservation in late 2022. Recall that reservations first opened in November 2019.
Curious about the new delivery time, they called Tesla who explained to them that tough financing conditions and reservation holders not pleased with the Foundation Series costing $20,000 more, were some of the reasons of moving ahead on the delivery list.
It appears that Tesla could be quickly burning through its reservation lists for a multitude of reasons —this has yet to be confirmed—but the example we provided is certainly an eye-opener.