In Texas, everything is bigger. That includes the money, the insults and the family feuds.

Two weeks before Election Day, with early voting already under way, the most expensive Senate race in US history got its two most viral moments on the same day. Shortly before 2pm ET, the world's richest man, who has bankrolled much of the GOP effort to save Ken Paxton, quote-tweeted a four-minute supercut of Democrat James Talarico and delivered his verdict: Pure Evil

Hours earlier, from the other end of the Republican family tree, came this:

In other words, the GOP establishment and the GOP's biggest donor are now openly campaigning on opposite sides of the same Senate seat. Below we walk through what Neil Bush actually said, how much money Musk has put behind Paxton, and why the race that decides the Senate may come down to who can persuade a Texan the other guy is the real threat.

"Character Matters More Than Party"

Neil Bush, 71, son of the late President George H.W. Bush and chair of his father's Points of Light nonprofit, wrote on Facebook on Tuesday, as first reported by Newsweek:

"I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate... I have been deeply troubled by Paxton's conduct as Texas Attorney General, particularly his decision to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election in other states in an effort to help Donald Trump remain in power."

He also brought up Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the GOP-controlled Texas House (Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate) and said, per The Hill, that Trump has done "enormous damage to the Republican party." He also gushed that Talarico's "faith appears to be a deeply rooted source of humility, compassion, and conviction rather than a political weapon."

It isn't just Neil. According to the Texas Gazette, FEC filings show George W.'s daughter Barbara gave $2,500 to Lone Star Rising PAC, the main pro-Talarico super PAC. The paper also cited a Fort Worth Star-Telegram column reporting that the former president took part in a Dallas fundraiser for six other GOP Senate candidates, with Paxton left off the list. Family dinners must be fun.

The $158 Million Rescue

Musk isn't just posting. As regular readers will recall from our Oct. 13 look at whether Elon can rescue Republicans in November, Musk put $158 million into the Senate Leadership Fund in September, and the money went straight to Texas PAC, the group backing Paxton. Reuters added the latest numbers on Wednesday:

*OUTSIDE GROUPS BACKING PAXTON HAVE SPENT ABOUT $239M, MORE THAN FIVE TIMES THE ~$45M BY LARGEST DEM-ALIGNED GROUPS

*COMBINED AD SPENDING IN RACE TOPS $500M, ON PACE FOR MOST EXPENSIVE SENATE CONTEST EVER

Talarico has made up the gap the old-fashioned way. His campaign says it raised $64 million from July through September, more than triple Paxton's haul, with 97% of donations under $100. Republican donor Dan Eberhart summed up the GOP view to Reuters: "I think the cavalry arrived just in the nick of time for Paxton."

"If The Terms Are Right"

And the candidate the cavalry is riding in to save? When he was asked about debating Talarico this week, Paxton came up with an unusual condition:

Talarico's answer, per TMZ, was to offer to hold the debate on TMZ. Put differently, the Democrat will debate anywhere, while the Republican wants the moderator vetted first. That's not a great look when your own side's message is that the other guy is the one hiding something. (Readers will recall Paxton's camp made hay of Talarico's two-week flu disappearance earlier this month.)

To Be Fair...

Musk's supporters will say the supercut speaks for itself. Every quote in it is attributed to Talarico, and lines like "God is non-binary" and "Prison is violence" are hard to square with the "pragmatic moderate" image Neil Bush is selling. For an electorate that has backed Republicans statewide for three decades, the culture-war framing may be exactly the right closing argument, which is presumably why the Musk-backed PAC has been running on it for weeks.

The polls are a coin toss. A University of Houston Hobby School poll (Oct. 10-15) had Talarico up 48-46, and CBS/YouGov (Oct. 8-16) had him ahead 51-49. Both are inside the margin of error. Close polls in Texas have also been false dawns for Democrats before.

Bushes, Billionaires And Ballots

The Paxton camp's line is that the old guard always sides with the Democrat over the fighter, and Musk is simply calling out a radical. Our summary is less so: when a Bush endorses the Democrat, the richest man alive calls that Democrat "pure evil," and the Republican won't debate unless CNN is barred, the GOP is running two campaigns in Texas at once, and they don't agree with each other. Texas could decide the Senate majority. Early voting ends Oct. 30, Election Day is Nov. 3, and we'll find out whether $239 million of outside money beats a $2,500 check from a Bush granddaughter.

Then again, if Talarico wins, Elon will have spent $158 million to prove Neil Bush right.