自动化之后:单人创业将成为默认。
After automation: Solo founding will be the default

原始链接: https://every.to/thesis-statements/julian-weisser

Julian Weisser认为,AI和自动化大幅降低了创建和推出初创公司的时间与成本,使单人创业越来越常见——Carta数据显示,到2026年,单人创始人占新初创公司的39%。虽然去掉联合创始人可以避免导致许多初创公司失败的人际冲突,但单人创始人面临新的风险:孤独和缺乏人力支持。AI可以加快工作,但不能完全替代那些挑战想法、发现你陷入困境或给予鼓励的人。Weisser总结道,最佳路径不是增加一个图方便而找的联合创始人,而是通过为单人创始人提供资源和同伴,践行“独自创业,共同前行”。

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原文

Julian Weisser

Julian Weisser is the founder and CEO of Solo Founders and a cofounder of On Deck.

I spent the last seven years helping ambitious people navigate the biggest barrier to starting successful companies: finding cofounders.

Back then, cofounders were considered an essential ingredient for starting a startup. Building and selling were each full-time jobs, and there was simply too much for one person to do. Because of this, most successful companies from Facebook to Airbnb had cofounders. That led to the idea of two (or more) cofounders in a garage or dorm room becoming a core part of Silicon Valley romanticism.

You'll notice that I wrote the prior paragraph in the past tense. That’s because things have changed. The amount of human hours required to build something useful and get it in front of customers has collapsed. With AI, it takes less time and money to get started than ever before. This is why, after automation, solo founding will be the default way to start startups.

You don't need to take my word for it. Just look at the data: In the report I collaborated on with Carta, we discovered that the share of solo founders has nearly doubled between 2018 and 2026 to 39 percent of new startups. Startups will soon experience a flippening moment where solo founding goes from odd to ordinary.

This won’t only reduce the barrier to starting a business—it’ll also change the default way that companies will fail. Harvard's Noam Wasserman found that 65 percent of high-potential startups die because of conflict between people, not the product or market. Taking cofounders out of the equation eliminates the main reason that startups die.

But the more interesting topic of discussion is what happens after going solo becomes the default. If the barrier to starting great companies used to be finding or working with cofounders, what will hold back great solo founders from reaching their full potential?

With solo as the default, the main reason startups die will be loneliness. The negative effects of loneliness occur when no one else is close enough to push back on a plan, notice when you're stuck, or simply encourage you to complete the last mile on an exhausting day. AI might be able to help you move faster, but it can’t fully replace another human to vent to or celebrate with.

This creates a new problem to solve. The biggest way to increase the likelihood of solo success is not to add a cofounder of convenience—it's to surround yourself with resources and other solo founders so you can build "solo, together." In a world of increased automation, building a solo company will be more viable than ever, but that doesn’t mean you have to build totally alone.

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