被《纽约时报》等媒体引用的民调机构承认其为伪造
Pollster Cited By NY Times, Other Outlets Admits It's Fake

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pollster-cited-ny-times-other-outlets-admits-its-fake

一个虚构的民调机构Wedgewood Polling承认,其几乎全部调查都是伪造的。该组织由前民调行业从业者创建,以测试媒体审查,称其未经核实的数据仍被包括《纽约时报》在内的媒体纳入民调平均值,并被MS Now等媒体引用。其虚假民调总体上有利于民主党,包括在密歇根州参议院竞选中显示Abdul El-Sayed领先Mike Rogers。它进行了一项合法的内布拉斯加州民调作为基准。Wedgewood表示,它无意误导选民或影响选举,但希望揭露审查不严的问题并推动行业变革。承认后,Decision Desk HQ删除了17项Wedgewood民调并重新运行预测,称两院控制概率未变。VoteHub的Zachary Donnini表示,他在与该机构所谓的首席民调员交谈后将其纳入,该人自称是有民调经验的大学生。FiftyPlusOne表示,其在披露前提出的问题促使了这一承认。

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原文

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A purported company whose polls were listed by a slew of outlets, including The New York Times, has said that all but one of its surveys were not real.

Wedgewood Polling said in a statement on Oct. 20 that it was developed by people who previously worked in the poll sector and wondered how easy it would be for a fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and "expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary."

The entity said that its surveys often did not have any real data behind them, but they were nonetheless included in poll averages by the NY Times and some other outlets.

"Our fabricated numbers were given instant credibility across national media platforms - including being cited on air and in reporting by outlets such as MS Now," Wedgewood Polling said. "The ease with which unverified figures were absorbed into mainstream political narratives highlights a systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation."

The surveys largely favored Democrats, including having Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan.

Wedgewood Polling conducted a single legitimate poll, in Nebraska, that served as a baseline to compare against fake data.

Wedgewood Polling said it did not intend to mislead the public or sway an election, and that the purpose was to spark changes in the polling and media industries.

Decision Desk HQ said on X on Wednesday that it removed 17 polls from Wedgewood Polling in light of the company's admission.

"As polling and averages are a component of our forecast model, we have rerun the model and all of our forecasts now reflect the removal of the fraudulent data," Decision Desk said. "The removal of these polls has not changed the projected seat totals or chamber control probabilities in the Senate or House."

Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, another poll aggregator, said on X on Tuesday that he contacted Wedgewood Polling's head pollster after the company first appeared, and that the individual said he was a college student who had experience in the polling space. The conversation led to VoteHub including polls from the company on its website.

"A few years ago, I was a college student following politics as a hobby myself, so I try to give people in that position the benefit of the doubt," Donnini said. "It's disappointing to see how this has unfolded, because it's going to be a ... lot harder for the next college kid who's actually well-intentioned and super into politics to break into the space after this."

FiftyPlusOne, which had also included Wedgewood Polling surveys, said on Tuesday that it had sent questions about the polls to the company prior to the admission that most of its polls were fake. It said the questions prompted the disclosure.

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