银行正试图脱手他们刚刚承销的AI数据中心债务
Banks are now trying to offload the AI data center debt they just underwrote

原始链接: https://startupfortune.com/banks-are-now-trying-to-offload-the-ai-data-center-debt-they-just-underwrote/

摩根大通、摩根士丹利、三井住友银行和三菱日联金融集团正在探索重大风险转移,以剥离它们协助承销的AI数据中心债务,这表明最接近这轮热潮的银行正在对冲。在争相为甲骨文、Meta及其他AI建设项目提供融资后,它们如今面临内部敞口限制。一笔与甲骨文相关、位于得克萨斯州/威斯康星州的380亿美元项目贷款已耗时六个多月分销,部分贷款机构愿意折价出售。甲骨文五年期CDS升至约151个基点,标普将其评级下调至BBB-。对AI债券的需求减弱,订单簿萎缩,同时美国国债收益率触及5.304%。银行不会出售自己信任的债务;它们会在集中度令其担忧时出售。被认为停放在SPV中的风险正回流至银行资产负债表。投资者如今更青睐微软/谷歌超大规模企业的租约,而非CoreWeave等较弱信用。AI热潮所依赖的廉价、开放信贷假设正受到检验。

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原文

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, SMBC and MUFG are quietly shopping pieces of the AI debt pile they helped build, a sign the lenders closest to the money have started hedging their own bet.

Six months ago, banks were racing each other to underwrite data center loans tied to Oracle, Meta and the rest of the AI buildout. Now some of the same banks are trying to get that debt off their books. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, SMBC and MUFG have been exploring significant risk transfers, according to a report from the Financial Times. These are deals that let a bank keep a loan on paper while shifting its riskiest slice to outside investors. The banks are doing this because they are bumping up against internal limits on how much AI-linked exposure any one lender can hold.

One case shows how stuck this has gotten. A group of banks including JPMorgan and MUFG has spent more than six months trying to distribute $38 billion in construction debt tied to a Texas and Wisconsin data center project leased to Oracle, Bloomberg has reported. Some lenders are now willing to sell pieces of it to non-bank buyers at a discount, just to move it. Six months is a long time to sit on debt nobody underwrote to hold forever.

Matthew Moniot, co-head of credit risk sharing at Man Group, told the Financial Times the deal sizes involved are "out of scale to anything we've thought about, ever." That is not a hedge-fund manager talking down a trade he wants no part of. It is someone whose job is pricing exactly this kind of risk, saying the numbers no longer fit any model he has used before.

Oracle is the clearest tell. Its five-year credit default swaps, the cost of insuring against the company defaulting, climbed to around 151 basis points in early October, levels last seen in 2009, according to market data cited by Bloomberg. S&P had already cut Oracle's credit rating to BBB-, a single notch above junk, back in July. The company is reportedly targeting more than $40 billion in additional debt and equity this fiscal year. That is on top of the $18 billion in bonds it sold in a single day last September, and the money is needed to keep funding its Texas, Wisconsin and New Mexico sites.

Demand for that paper has thinned out, too. Bonds from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle now trade at a premium to similarly rated non-AI corporate debt. Order books for their offerings have shrunk from roughly five times the amount on sale back in February to under two times by July, Bloomberg has reported. That is the difference between a bond that sells itself and one a bank has to work to place.

None of this is happening in isolation. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.304% this month, its highest since 2002, after a $39 billion auction cleared at 5.30%, the highest auction yield since 2000. The Federal Reserve's own September meeting minutes named AI-related corporate borrowing as a contributor to that move. Capital Economics argues the bigger driver is plain old inflation and government deficits, not tech company bond sales. Whoever is right about the cause, the effect is the same for anyone trying to finance a data center right now: the risk-free rate they are borrowing against just got a lot more expensive.

Frankly, the mechanics here matter more than the headline number. Banks do not sell down debt they are confident in. They sell down debt when they are worried about concentration, which is exactly what "approaching internal limits" means in plain English: too much of this bank's balance sheet is now one bet on one sector holding up. Spreading $120 billion of AI infrastructure spending across special purpose vehicles was supposed to make that risk easier to swallow. That is the structure Oracle, Meta, xAI and CoreWeave have all used to keep debt off their own balance sheets. Instead the risk is turning up at the banks that financed the SPVs in the first place.

The investors who still want in have gotten pickier about where. Capital is rotating toward data centers leased to investment-grade hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google, and away from weaker credits, Bloomberg has reported. That is exactly why CoreWeave-leased paper prices at 7.00% to 9.875%, against the 5.70% to 7.875% that hyperscaler-leased bonds command, per bond market data compiled by CCIR. A smaller, less capitalized AI infrastructure company trying to raise debt next quarter is now competing for the same nervous pool of lenders as Oracle. Except without Oracle's balance sheet or its existing customer base to point to.

That's the part of this story that does not show up in a single day's stock move. The AI boom still runs on the assumption that credit stays open indefinitely at reasonable terms. Six months of a bank struggling to sell $38 billion in loans is the clearest evidence yet that assumption is being tested in real time, not in some theoretical downturn still years away.

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