With Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel and the Iran war continuing to disrupt global energy supplies, a troubling question remains: if the fighting ends tomorrow, how long will it take to repair the damage already inflicted on the Middle East's energy infrastructure?
Tonight at 7pm ET, ZeroHedge brings together two of Wall Street's most accomplished energy analysts, Paul Sankey and Arjun Murti, to debate the future of oil markets, with MacroVoices founder Erik Townsend moderating.
The debate comes amid renewed attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where 24 vessels were struck during the two weeks ending October 11, according to the Financial Times. And while crude exports from the Gulf have recovered considerably, the region's refining industry remains severely impaired. According to Reuters, Gulf crude and condensate exports recovered to 91% of prewar levels in September, while refined fuel exports remained at just 60%.
Energy analytics firm Kpler estimates that regional refinery throughput fell from 9.9 million barrels per day before the war to roughly 7.3 million in August, with a full recovery unlikely before the second quarter of 2027.
Elsewhere, damage could prove considerably more enduring. QatarEnergy estimates that repairing two LNG production trains damaged by Iranian strikes will take three to five years. Its chief executive, Saad al-Kaabi, said in March that the strikes had set the region back 10 to 20 years.
Few analysts are better positioned to judge how long the rebuild will take.
Arjun Murti, a former Goldman Sachs partner and co-director of Americas Equity Research, famously predicted an oil "super-spike" in 2005, warning that crude could reach $105 per barrel when it was trading near $55. The prediction was vindicated in 2008, when oil surged to nearly $150.
Murti, now a partner at Veriten and author of the Super-Spiked newsletter, also serves on the boards of ConocoPhillips and Liberty Energy.
Paul Sankey, founder of Sankey Research and a former Deutsche Bank energy analyst, has spent more than three decades covering global oil markets, beginning at the International Energy Agency during the first Gulf War.
Sankey has been ranked the No. 1 energy analyst by Institutional Investor multiple times, and his independent firm earned a top ranking in the publication's 2023 Independent Oil & Gas Research category. He also warned that oil prices could go negative a month before WTI crashed below zero in April 2020.
Erik Townsend is a longtime energy futures trader, former hedge fund manager and founder of the widely followed MacroVoices financial podcast.
The three will examine the damage to Middle Eastern refining capacity, the outlook for crude and refined products, the potential for further escalation in the Iran war, and whether today's elevated energy prices represent a temporary geopolitical shock or the beginning of a much longer structural shortage.
Tune in tonight at 7pm ET here on the ZH homepage, X feed, and YouTube channel to see how to position in energy markets and what to expect at the pump in coming months.