别被骗了——大语言模型并不会推理。
Don't be fooled–LLMs don't reason

原始链接: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/10/02/1145639/dont-be-fooled-llms-dont-reason/

在医学和科学等高风险领域,了解人工智能系统得出了什么结论只是其一,更重要的是了解它是如何得出这一结论的,包括错误究竟源于推理缺陷、无效证据还是错误假设。 受阿尔法狗启发,机器推理应维护一种明确的认知状态,类似于博弈树,用来记录哪些内容已知、哪些内容存疑、哪些内容已被排除,以及哪些问题仍未解决。推理过程应包括通过演绎、分解、计算和实验不断更新这一状态,并选择最能带来新信息的下一步行动。 与棋盘游戏不同,现实世界中的推理涉及不完整的信息、数量庞大且不断变化的可选行动,以及具有不确定性或随机性的结果。一种以显式认知状态跟踪为核心的全新技术架构,可以让机器推理更具可解释性、适应性和可信度。

The Hacker News 上的一篇讨论 debated 一篇文章,该文章声称大语言模型并不真正具备推理能力。文章指出了三个缺陷:模型没有明确、持久且可审查的信念;知识与推理过程相互纠缠并混合在模型权重中;思维链解释可能只是事后合理化,而非对模型实际计算过程的忠实描述。 许多评论者质疑这些标准,指出人类同样依赖隐性知识,也常常在作出决定后才编造解释。另一些人则认为,以人类的生物机制来评判 AI 会产生误导,并列举了智能体系统的特点:这类系统能够维护状态、持续接收反馈、使用外部工具,并自主规划或采取行动。评论区还批评了将 AI 与飞机、鸟类进行类比的做法,认为这种比较混淆了不同的实现方式与不同的能力。 讨论还延伸到了意识、功能主义、唯物主义、量子理论,以及在没有主观体验的情况下是否仍可能存在可观察的推理。一个较为常见的结论是:这篇文章更有力地论证了透明、可审计的推理的重要性,包括明确的前提、证据、不确定性、搜索过程和验证机制,而不能充分证明当前模型完全不具备推理能力。目前尚未形成共识,主要原因在于“推理”本身仍未得到明确界定,其含义也存在争议。
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原文

This is a problem because in the high-stakes applications we all care about, such as medicine, engineering, and scientific research, it matters not only what a system concludes but also how it arrives at its conclusion. When mistakes happen—for example, in medical diagnosis and treatment—we need to be able to pinpoint what went wrong: Was the system’s reasoning at fault, did it draw on invalid evidence, or did it make incorrect assumptions? 

This is why I recently left my position at Google DeepMind. I believe we need a fresh approach to machine reasoning—one that draws on AlphaGo’s architecture. AlphaGo maintains a record of what it knows about a given position: the game tree. This data structure contains all the variations, the possible futures, that AlphaGo has considered, each move and position being annotated with judgments made by its neural networks. As its reasoning progresses, AlphaGo updates the game tree and eventually synthesizes the information in it to decide which move to make. 

Similarly, for general reasoning a system should maintain an epistemic state that represents what the system holds as settled, what it doubts, what it has ruled out, which questions stay open. Reasoning can then be understood as a sequence of moves that change the epistemic state to advance knowledge and reduce uncertainty: deducing consequences, breaking problems into parts, and—crucially—deciding what question to ask, calculation to perform, or experiment to run next.

Of course, open-world reasoning is harder than playing a board game such as Go or chess. In the real world the current state of affairs is only partially known, the set of available actions is large and variable, and the consequences of actions are stochastic or unknown. 

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