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Let's unpack it then. You've stated: >"Mostly from Australia and Chile" seems like the opposite of baggage, that sounds like about the best you could hope for in a global commodity, so many of which come from unstable regions, conflict regions, or outright adversaries. So let's break it down with some facts (all easily searchable.) (1) The graph states that Australia is the largest producer of Lithium, and states that of their exports, 90% goes to China. (2) Australia exports the majority of its lithium. (https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/insights-australian-exports-...) (3) Lithium ion batteries are currently reliant on Cobalt for their cathode. (4) The DRC (Congo) is the largest producer of Cobalt, then Indonesia, then Russia. >"seems like the opposite of baggage ... unstable regions, conflict regions, or outright adversaries" From (1) and (2) we can see that the world is dependent on China for the only viable battery option for a range of modern applications. Thus the claim that this isn't baggage is not supported. Secondly China is also considered an adversary of the USA, by the USA. Thirdly the claim that this does not involve unstable/conflict regions is also not supported due to (3) and (4). Part two: you've also stated the below: >"Building new Na-ion capacity outside China" is probably even harder than "building new li-ion capacity outside China." While this is a baseless comment, let's look at it anyway: (5) The article is specifically about the commencement of mass production of Na batteries in the USA. That already refutes the core premise of your statement, but let's follow it further. (6) The article notes that unlike Li batteries, the materials are trivially sourced domestically. That's an important difference from Li batteries, and significantly boosts the viability of competitive production in the USA (and other countries outside of China). |
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The no further regulation option is people looking for the “made in …” on goods and not buying from certain countries. Then invoke Milton freedman.
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> The car has a 23.2 kWh battery pack with a CLTC range of 230 kilometers (140 mi) 23.2 kWh achieving 140 miles range sounds unrealistic. For example the 57kWh model 3 has a range of ~260 miles. |
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Bloomberg NEF actually ran an interesting article a few weeks ago suggesting that we'll have all the batteries we need to electrify all road traffic: https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batt... They are tracking all the companies and investments involved with battery production and one of their claims is that new battery production is going to outstrip demand in the next few years. That will likely mean significant price drops for batteries. And it also means that companies outside of China may be struggling to become cost competitive. |
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> The advantage with Sodium Ion is that, although energy densities are lower than Lithium Ion, it could still be used to power mobile devices and electric vehicles. There is an insightful comment by AtlasBarfed: Keep in mind sodium ion and LFP are much safer and don't require nearly as much cooling and management systems as nickel-cobalt chemistries: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38363603 Read the whole comment, it is pretty detailed and explains why the lower density of Sodium Ion doesn't matter as much as people think. |
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Lesser energy density is a pretty big caveat that can readily make or break the commercial viability of this technology. How big of a difference compared to lithium ion is the energy density?
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There are already batteries cheaper than lithium ion batteries, but they are not in low-end phones, because a low-end lithium ion phone battery is still only a few dollars.
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Even though I could easily afford an iPhone or Pixel my daily driver is a $150 Android phone. Due to the low margins of the manufacturer it's actually a very usable device.
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there are a lot of smartphones sold for low end markets like India and China. most of the worlds phones, actually. not everyone lives in California and makes a million a year |
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Agreed, I just learned that the next formula for Formula E will eventually have charging stops. The spec will allow 5kwh of charge in 30 seconds, which is 10% SoC in their case. Pretty cool.
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I wonder what that will mean for charging infrastructure that suddenly has to deliver 10x power to enable that. Not sure that sort of charging could be as ubiquitously placed as gas stations
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Just have the same batteries in the charging station to smooth out power usage? Seems a lot cheaper and operationally less complex than a gas station.
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Advanced solar and wind inverters can also push back on grid changes to mimic inertia. Also I'd say the inertia in a normal wind turbine doesn't count because it's not tied into the grid frequency. |
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This is one way to do it: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/worlds-f... Overhead cables are simpler and cheaper, but not easily compatible with cars (which would need a comically tall pantograph to connect to the cables). (Induction is a third option, but it's not really viable except in certain special cases because it's way more expensive, can't deliver as much power, and tends to be less energy efficient.) Electrifying highways may sound expensive or complicated, but consider what the alternatives are. We could stick with fossil fuels. The U.S. burns about 4 million barrels of gasoline and about 4 million barrels of diesel a day, most of which is used to push cars and trucks around. That's not simple or cheap, we're just accustomed to the cost. Another option is we switch to EVs and rely on big batteries for range. That kind of works, but battery manufacturing scale isn't there. It's also kind of wasteful to have a substantial portion of the vehicle weight being batteries. It means cars and trucks are heavier than they need to be, and they can haul less cargo. If we could get to the point where, say, someone could drive coast-to-coast without ever having to stop to charge with only 30 or 40 kwh battery, that would be huge. It would reduce EV costs dramatically, it would reduce average vehicle weight, and you might even get better performance. (This wouldn't completely eliminate the need for some long-range vehicles for areas not served by electrified highways, but for most uses it should be fine.) |
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Compelling to me also, as a person who has shied away from EVs because of charging time annoyances. I'd gladly trade the mileage for charging speed every time. Getting excited for what's to come.
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Is running a generator for long periods cost effective? If someone lived where the grid wasn't reliable, and could make the initial investment for all this fuel storage stuff, why not do solar?
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My hesitation with hybrids is that I keep all the associated maintenance costs of an ICE engine. Now I have two power trains and energy systems to maintain instead of just one.
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Look at a workshop maintenance manual to get a rough idea. One car I had, about a third of the book was dedicated to the automatic transmission. Auto transmissions are very complex.
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One of the fuel injectors died at 190k miles in my Prius, so not quite 200k. At 210k now. Only other thing is that it is consuming more oil now so needs topping up every few thousand miles. |
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It's the powertrain that's far more apt to be the problem. Hence a plugin hybrid generator style should be far simpler than a system with both an ICE and electric powertrain.
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It would be really nice if there were a battery technology that could charge 100 miles in a few minutes, even if that meant you would be constantly charging on longer trips.
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The problem lies on electric grid capacity. If we're phasing out fossil fuel powered transportation, we will have to upgrade massivelly electricity productions well as in grid capacity.
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> The highest peak electricity demand in the UK in recent years was 62GW in 2002. Since then, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16% due to improvements in energy efficiency. > Even if we all switched to EVs overnight, we estimate demand would only increase by around 10%. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002, and this is well within the range the grid can capably handle. > In the US, the grid is equally capable of handling more EVs on the roads – by the time 80% of the US owns an EV, this will only translate into a 10-15% increase in electricity consumption.1 https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/ele... |
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Which again, is basically a non-issue for grid-scale storage. These aren't for laptops or cars. Though they seem to trying to increase energy density, so they can become for cars. But not there yet. |
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yes, enormously helpful, if true (no figures are given, and they may be comparing to low-power lithium-ion batteries instead of high-power ones). an equally valid way to say '10 times faster discharge rate' is '10 times higher power for the same capacity' or '10 times higher power density' there are available li-ion batteries with a charge and discharge rate of '15c', which is to say, 1 hour ÷ 15 = 4 minutes. they are used in drones. (there are some advertised as '30c' but i suspect those are maybe just a fraud? like the notorious amazon million-lumen flashlights https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceA5xL6ggEw) if they really reach '150c', you could discharge 10% of the battery in 2.4 seconds, which is closer to a firework rocket engine than a conventional battery. but, a rocket engine that you can recharge 50000 times a charge rate of '150c' would mean you could charge the battery halfway in 12 seconds, and there are a lot of scenarios where that would be useful you could imagine '150c' batteries displacing much larger supercapacitors from many uses, rather than displacing conventional batteries. the number given in the article of 70 watt hours per kilogram is, in si units, 250kJ/kg. if you divide that by the 24 seconds implied by '10 times faster than lithium-ion' you get a power density of 10.4 kilowatts per kilogram. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_density says supercaps are in the 15 kilowatts per kilogram range. quadcopter drone electric motors are typically in the neighborhood of 4–5 kilowatts per kilogram, so this would make the drone battery much smaller than the motor instead of bigger more likely, though, it's a press release lie, where they're saying something that's technically true (there are lithium batteries with a '1c' charge and discharge rate, which have higher energy density than the higher-powered ones, and their batteries reach '10c', i.e., 6 minutes) but creates a false impression of something that would be a huge breakthrough if it were true |
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> If people actually care about slim, light phones... why has almost every company stopped making them? It’s not the sole factor. But ceteris paribus, most consumer prefer a thinner, lighter phone. |
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This should be nicely solved with something like the xreal glasses. Lie the deck down and have the display right in front of your eyes regardless of how you hold the input device.
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The advantage with Sodium Ion is that, although energy densities are lower than Lithium Ion, it could still be used to power mobile devices and electric vehicles.
[1] https://www.wesa.fm/environment-energy/2024-02-19/weirton-fo...
[2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-02-02/vanadium-redo...