Against a backdrop of resource nationalism, Beijing surrounding Taiwan with a record number of ships and raising blockade risks, an ongoing trade war, and President Trump challenging BRICS, the US military is disrupting China's access to cheap crude oil from countries such as Venezuela and Iran. This is merely the US response after Beijing spent the last 1.5 years depriving the West of rare earths and other critical materials.
These developments provide context for an economic war that could one day spill over into a kinetic exchange, whether in the Pacific or around Taiwan. With that said, observers are closely watching China's development of advanced military weaponry as conflict risks between the great superpowers rise.
Aviation researcher Andreas Rupprecht posted footage on LinkedIn that appears to show a prototype of China's "next-generation" fighter jet, with new images suggesting potential progress toward operational status.
Rupprecht provided an update on China's J-36:
Recent reports and photographs suggest that testing of China's “next-generation" fighters has entered a new phase and offer clues to their eventual use.
I avoid the term "sixth generation" because, unlike "fifth generation," it remains undefined: there is no consensus on the relevant criteria, and too little is known for confident classification. Labels such as "5.5th & "6th gen." often serve more as media conversation-stoppers and marketing tools than as useful analysis.
First, the J-36. Since its surprise maiden flight in December 2024, its unusual three-engine configuration and tailless, diamond-shaped double-delta design have prompted speculation. At least four, possibly five, prototypes are flying and likely no. 04 was first spotted in July with a light-grey radome, suggesting an installed fire-control radar. Also, a poster at the ongoing 14th China International Defense Electronics Exhibition in Beijing shows an Acquisition, Tracking, and Pointing (ATP) system developed by the AVIC Beijing Precision Engineering Institute for Aircraft Industry beneath a J-36.
Soon after the maiden flight, competing theories emerged and I cautioned against premature conclusions but argued that the J-36 may embody a Chinese interpretation of future aerial warfare: extreme range, a large weapons load, and comprehensive sensors for long-range A2/AD missions as either an interceptor or a deep-penetration fighter aircraft.
According to Yang Wei, the new fighter can penetrate heavily defended airspace that the J-20 and comparable F-22s or F-35s must avoid, placing it a generation ahead. With lower RCS, high speed, and the capacity to control more drones, it could act as a node and command center for systems including J-20s and, especially, unmanned aircraft, while attacking high-value targets from stand-off range with long-range weapons.
I therefore disagree with Western analysts such as Justin Bronk, who rated the prototype not as China's NGAD-equivalent sixth-generation fighter but as the fifth-generation regional bomber/strike project. In my opinion China has instead revealed its own concept of future air combat and a new generation of combat aircraft distinct from Western approaches.
The type could therefore represent a new class of "fighter." Online terms include "theater-level deep-penetration command combat aircraft" and "high-performance fighter," analogous to a cruiser ranking above a destroyer within the Navy. Recent evidence gives this theory new weight and warrants continued monitoring.
Last week, we covered China's next-generation combat aircraft programs, touching on the J-50 and J-36, which are considered rivals to the US Air Force's sixth-generation main fighter program, the F-47, being developed by Boeing.
The Shanghai Morning Post quoted a paper by researcher and chief flight-control designer Zhang Dong at the Shenyang Aircraft Design & Research Institute, a top Chinese military aircraft design organization. The paper said stealth fighter programs were undergoing a "leapfrog transformation from being able to fly steadily to being able to win in combat."
What's important to know is that economic warfare can escalate into kinetic warfare, meaning direct military action, particularly when one country views restrictions on, let's say, crude or rare earths as a threat to national security.
In recent weeks, Taiwan's main English-language daily newspaper, the Taipei Times, warned that China deployed a record number of ships around the island, suggesting that a potential blockade could become a major 2027 theme. This comes as the US depleted some of its most critical missiles and interceptors in the conflict in the Middle East.
Whether escalation or calm follows the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington next week remains to be seen. For now, the global situation suggests the world is on a critically dangerous path toward spillover risks as two conflicts rage across Eurasia.