The last time Minnesota voted Republican for president was Richard Nixon in 1972.
The state hasn’t voted for a Republican senator since 2002, when Norm Coleman won a seat he'd lose six years later to Al Franken. Republicans have talked themselves into believing the state might break their way every cycle since, and Minnesota voters have declined to cooperate every time. Barack Obama carried the state by double digits in 2008. Hillary Clinton won it by less than two points in 2016. In 2024, Kamala Harris only won the state by four points, even with home-state Gov. Tim Walz on the ticket.
Despite the those close races, Democrats expected Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-Minn.) to cruise into the open seat. She had to fight for it first. Rep. Angie Craig, the more centrist option, lost the August primary to Flanagan's progressive coalition, built with help from Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.).
According to a fresh survey by Quantus Insights, Flanagan leads 48.2 percent, to Michele Tafoya’s 44.4 percent, a lead within the poll’s margin of error. In terms of public opinion, 50 percent rate Flanagan favorably while 46 percent rate her unfavorably, and 42.4 percent rate Tafoya favorably with 42 percent rating her unfavorably.
Other surveys confirm the race has tightened.
A poll conducted by TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, surveyed 1,201 likely voters and showed Flanagan leading by only two points, with the independents divided equally between the two candidates at 37% each.
“Into the home stretch of campaign season, such a tight race in a normally safe Democrat bastion presents a big headache for national party operatives and donors,” writes Steve Cortes, president of the League of American Workers.
“Clearly, they will have to invest heavily to try to convince voters that radical Flanagan belongs in the U.S. Senate.”
According to Cortes, Tafoya is exactly the kind of candidate who can break the Democrats’ winning streak.
“Tafoya represents exactly the kind of candidate that works in this current political and media environment,” he explained.
“A longtime popular sideline football TV reporter, she is known to legions of fans as one of the best, most skilled broadcasters in sports. Tafoya’s superb media skills were honed over decades on camera before truly record-breaking TV audiences.”
The tightness of these polls is quite remarkable considering the state became ground zero for the administration's expanded immigration enforcement this year. Federal immigration officers fatally shot two American citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, during Operation Metro Surge. The shootings turned the city into a flashpoint. However, a slew of state fraud investigations has embarrassed Democratic officials. Gov. Tim Walz’s approval ratings are also underwater, with 46% disapproving and 42% approving.
Despite the closeness of these polls, prediction markets haven't gotten the memo yet.
Polymarket shows Flanagan's odds of winning above 90%, with Tafoya at under 10%.