硅谷部分人士对人工智能发出的危言耸听未引起反响
Dramatic insider warnings over AI fall flat with some in Silicon Valley

原始链接: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq635037g18o

在旧金山举行的高盛会议上,随着 Anthropic 研究员雅各布·考克森(Jacob Coxon)的突然辞职,硅谷的关注点从增长转向了人工智能的伦理问题。考克森警告称,人工智能开发者是在“拿我们的生命赌博”,并声称该技术很快会成为一种超人类的威胁。他的担忧与业内其他人士不谋而合,包括 Anthropic 的埃文·胡宾格(Evan Hubinger),他曾公开评估称人工智能存在导致人类灭绝的重大风险。 然而,这些危言耸听的警告在一些投资者和高管中受到了质疑。批评者,如 Grindr 首席执行官乔治·阿里森(George Arison)认为,这种末日言论可能是一种营销策略,旨在 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等公司潜在的 IPO 前夕,夸大其技术实力并推高估值。阿里森称这种情绪是“不负责任的”,甚至限制了公司使用 Anthropic 的工具。 尽管 Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代(Dario Amodei)因其对人工智能社会影响的严峻预测而面临强烈反对,但他仍坚持认为这些风险是真实的,并于近期提倡全球监管以及减缓人工智能的发展速度。随着估值的飙升,业界对于这些警告究竟是出于对安全的真实担忧,还是经过算计的炒作,依然存在严重分歧。

本次 Hacker News 讨论聚焦于对行业巨头近期发出的“人工智能末日”警告所持的怀疑态度。批评者认为,这些危言耸听的声明是出于自身利益的驱使,具体而言,这是一种“监管俘获”策略——即利用政府政策来建立竞争壁垒,阻碍开源模型的发展。 该辩论凸显了以下几个核心矛盾: * **动机与可信度:** 许多评论者认为,首席执行官们的警告是旨在推高股价或限制竞争的公关手段,这被比作“狼来了”的故事。 * **技术层面的质疑:** 讨论区中的工程师们对“超级智能”毁灭世界的假设表示怀疑,认为这些观点基于科幻构想,而非当前算力密集、资源受限的人工智能训练现实。 * **对人为错误的关注:** 多位参与者指出,真正的危险不在于具备感知能力的人工智能,而在于人类的“极度愚蠢”,即人类赋予人工智能代理对关键基础设施的控制权。 * **监管施压:** 怀疑论者担心,这些警告正在为可能扼杀开源创新的政策制造舆论支持。他们最终主张转向边缘计算和开放权重模型,以绕过由企业控制的“前沿”实验室。
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原文

Each September, a who's who of executives from across Silicon Valley descends on San Francisco's Palace Hotel to charm investors at a conference hosted by the investment bank Goldman Sachs.

This past week, between talk of growth and potential returns, tech titans found themselves addressing the abrupt resignation of Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon.

Coxon, a 27-year-old who worked at OpenAI before joining its chief rival Anthropic, said on Tuesday that people building artificial intelligence (AI) believed the technology could destroy humanity.

They are "gambling with our lives", he said, "these will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything".

Coxon is by no means the first AI insider to publicly sound the alarm. There have been a string of high-profile resignations from both Anthropic and OpenAI in recent years over apparent safety concerns, and some current Anthropic employees even echoed Coxon's post.

"We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade," a team lead at Anthropic, Evan Hubinger, posted on X.

While Coxon said explicitly in his posts that his warnings were "not marketing", some executives and investors in Silicon Valley have reacted with scepticism to a recent flurry of insiders sounding the alarm.

Anthropic and OpenAI are reportedly preparing for potentially record-setting initial public offerings, and some in the tech sector have suggested the latest stark comments about the dangers of AI may be designed to generate hype by signalling the power of these products.

Anthropic's boss, Dario Amodei, has come under fire for saying AI technology could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and will "test who we are as a species".

One conference speaker, Grindr CEO George Arison, told the BBC he believed this week's comments from Coxon and others were indicative of an "anti-civilisational worldview at Anthropic".

He called them "dangerous" and said they had prompted him to instruct some engineers at the LGBTQ+ dating app to stop using Anthropic's technology.

"It is irresponsible for us as stewards of our shareholders' money to be relying on a business that does what this company does, in terms of its public statements," he said.

"Maybe they actually believe it," Arison said. "Or you could argue they're saying it because it's a great way to gin up more investor support, because the only way to justify these valuations is to actually claim: 'I'm going to take over every industry and I'm going to take over every job, and my AI is going to be doing all that work.'"

Anthropic was valued at $965bn (£713bn) in its most recent fundraising round earlier this year.

The BBC has asked Anthropic for a response to the statements.

In an essay posted early on Saturday, Amodei called for a slowing of AI model development and global regulation - and said the risks associated with AI were "serious".

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