Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,
The federal deficit will be $2.1 trillion when fiscal year 2026 ends on Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office projected in its monthly budget review.
The deficit - the gap between what the government spends and what it collects from taxes and other revenue - has never surpassed $1.8 trillion, except during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Key facts: Federal revenues are up 3% in 2026 compared to last year. Even though corporate income tax revenue has declined, income and payroll tax collections increased.
But federal spending is up 5%, according to the CBO. Interest on the national debt increased 14% compared to last year. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and defense are also facing increased costs.
The CBO originally projected this year's deficit would be $1.9 trillion. The estimate was changed "mostly because of smaller-than-expected collections of tariff duties" after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in February.
Though Trump later imposed new tariffs, the CBO still expects federal revenue to be $250 billion less than originally anticipated. About $100 billion has been refunded to companies so far, under an order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.
Critical quote: "We've borrowed an astounding $1.8 trillion this fiscal year, with $431 billion in the month of July alone, and equating to nearly $6 billion per day," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "We're on track to surpass $2 trillion in borrowing this fiscal year despite not being in a recession. That is not normal."
Background: The University of Pennsylvania recently estimated that under current policy, it will likely be mathematically impossible for the U.S. to pay off its debt by the year 2048.
That was before Trump asked Congress to increase discretionary spending by 19% next year, which would be the second-largest spending increase in at least 60 years.
Summary: America's affordability crisis is the most prominent political issue in the country, yet neither party has committed to reducing government deficits. Until then, the crisis is likely to only worsen.
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