服务业调查数据激增,引发对八月份美国经济增长回升的预期。
Services Sector Survey Surge Sparks US Growth Rebound Hopes In August

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/services-sector-survey-surge-sparks-us-growth-rebound-hopes-august

尽管近期的宏观数据令人失望,但 8 月份标普全球(S&P Global)发布的初步采购经理人指数(PMI)显示,美国经济正经历强劲的增长势头。虽然制造业有所下滑,但服务业表现火爆,将第三季度的年化增长预测从上一季度的 1.5% 推高至近 3.0%。 首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森(Chris Williamson)指出,这是四年多来最快的产出增长,并受到就业创造信心回升的提振。然而,经济仍面临挥之不去的阻力。企业对地缘政治的不稳定性及能源价格上涨依然感到担忧,这两者持续加剧了供应链的延误。虽然价格压力总体上有所缓解,但仍处于高位且易受波动影响。最终,当前的扩张已将其依赖从制造业转向服务业,凸显出经济增长对消费支出和金融服务的依赖日益加深。

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原文

After a relatively ugly series of disappointing macro data - and a hectic week of interventions - preliminary August data from S&P Global's PMI survey was expected to signal a slowdown in growth for the US economy (but still growth).

But, the respondents had other things on their mind as while Manufacturing slipped, the Services sector of the economy soared

“US business is booming," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter as the expansion picked up further momentum in August."

The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter.

Jobs growth has also shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining in confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East.

However, as Williamson writes, "the latter in particular remains a key area of concern for businesses, especially via the impact on supply lines and energy prices. "

Supply delays were again reported in August to one of the greatest extents seen over the past four years, clearly constraining output in many companies.

Price pressures, while fading, also remain elevated and prone to renewed upward pressures should energy prices rise again.

Growth momentum has meanwhile shifted from manufacturing to services between the second and third quarters.

Williamson concludes: "As reduced safety stock building and supply delays dampen factory production growth, the service sector is now playing a key role in driving a sustained US expansion, underscoring a dependency on consumer spending and financial services growth.”

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