到2050年,全球人口最多的城市都将位于非洲或亚洲。
By 2050, The World's Most-Populous Cities Will All Be In Africa Or Asia

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/2050-worlds-most-populous-cities-will-all-be-africa-or-asia

在过去的150年里,全球特大城市分布图发生了剧烈变革,重心已从西方主导转向以亚洲和非洲为主导的城市格局。 1950年,纽约、伦敦和巴黎等西方城市占据了全球人口最多15个城市中超过半数的席位。然而,20世纪后期,全球南方国家——尤其是拉美和亚洲——经历了快速城市化。到2025年,亚洲已占据全球前10大城市中的9席,其中雅加达位居世界首位。 针对2100年的预测显示,全球人口中心将持续重新分配。孟加拉国的达卡预计将以5500万人口成为全球人口最多的城市。尽管卡拉奇和新德里等亚洲枢纽地位依然稳固,但罗安达、达累斯萨拉姆和拉各斯等非洲城市正崛起为重要的人口大都市。反之,由于出生率下降,东京等历史性中心城市正面临人口显著减少。这些数据凸显了一个根本性的人口转向,标志着新兴经济体中特大城市的崛起,而西方城市中心正逐渐失去其往日的显赫地位。

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原文

Across 150 years, familiar urban giants rise, fall, and give way to a new generation of megacities.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, ranks the 15 most populous cities worldwide from 1950 to 2100 using population estimates from the European Commission’s JRC via Our World in Data. City boundaries were consistently defined based on satellite imagery and population data.

The Transatlantic Era

Tokyo led the 1950 ranking with 12.6 million people, followed by New York with 9.3 million.

The Big Apple was not the only massive Western city at the time. Of the 15 most populous cities in 1950, over half were found in either Europe or the Americas. This included London (7.9 million), Moscow (5.5 million), and Paris (5.4 million).

The table below ranks the 15 most populous cities in 1950:

RankCityPopulation in 1950
(Millions)
Region
1🇯🇵 Tokyo12.6Asia
2🇺🇸 New York City9.3North America
3🇯🇵 Osaka8.0Asia
4🇬🇧 London7.9Europe
5🇮🇳 Kolkata6.1Asia
6🇷🇺 Moscow5.5Europe
7🇫🇷 Paris5.4Europe
8🇦🇷 Buenos Aires4.6South America
9🇺🇸 Los Angeles4.0North America
10🇮🇩 Jakarta3.9Asia
11🇮🇳 Mumbai3.8Asia
12🇲🇽 Mexico City3.7North America
13🇪🇬 Cairo3.1Africa
14🇨🇳 Shanghai3.1Asia
15🇧🇷 São Paulo3.1South America

The rankings began changing quickly over the following decades. By 1975, London had fallen out of the top 15, while Paris (7.4 million) and Los Angeles (7.7 million) had also slipped in rank.

The second half of the 20th century also saw the rise of Latin American metropolises such as São Paulo and Mexico City, which by 2000 had surpassed New York as the most populous cities in the hemisphere.

The Rise of Asia

By 2000, Asia dominated the upper reaches of the ranking.

Tokyo maintained its lead at 30.3 million inhabitants, while Guangzhou had climbed to third with 19 million and New Delhi to sixth with 18 million.

Urbanization and a continental population boom continued, and by 2025 all but one of the 10 most populous cities worldwide were in Asia. The sole exception was Cairo, with 25.6 million people.

RankCityPopulation in 2025
(Millions)
Region
1🇮🇩 Jakarta41.9Asia
2🇧🇩 Dhaka36.6Asia
3🇯🇵 Tokyo33.4Asia
4🇮🇳 New Delhi30.2Asia
5🇨🇳 Shanghai29.6Asia
6🇨🇳 Guangzhou27.6Asia
7🇪🇬 Cairo25.6Africa
8🇵🇭 Manila24.7Asia
9🇮🇳 Kolkata22.5Asia
10🇰🇷 Seoul22.5Asia
11🇵🇰 Karachi21.4Asia
12🇮🇳 Mumbai20.2Asia
13🇧🇷 São Paulo18.9South America
14🇹🇭 Bangkok18.2Asia
15🇲🇽 Mexico City17.7North America

The World in 2100

By 2100, Dhaka is projected to rank first with 55 million people, followed by Jakarta at 49.7 million and Karachi at 43.7 million. Tokyo, the world’s largest city in 1950 and 2000, is projected to fall to ninth place with 24.1 million residents.

RankCityPopulation in 2100P
(Millions)
Region
1🇧🇩 Dhaka55.0Asia
2🇮🇩 Jakarta49.7Asia
3🇵🇰 Karachi43.7Asia
4🇪🇬 Cairo36.7Africa
5🇮🇳 New Delhi32.0Asia
6🇦🇴 Luanda30.7Africa
7🇵🇰 Lahore24.8Asia
8🇨🇳 Shanghai24.7Asia
9🇯🇵 Tokyo24.1Asia
10🇵🇭 Manila22.4Asia
11🇮🇳 Mumbai21.5Asia
12🇮🇳 Kolkata20.5Asia
13🇹🇿 Dar es Salaam20.1Africa
14🇨🇳 Guangzhou18.1Asia
15🇳🇬 Lagos17.9Africa

Cairo will remain the most populous city outside of Asia, with 36.7 million people. It will be joined in the upper rankings by other African megacities including Luanda (30.7 million), Dar es Salaam (20.1 million), and Lagos (17.9 million).

Tokyo is projected to see its population fall below its 1975 level as declining birth rates contribute to long-term population decline.

To learn more about national population growth, check out The Top 10 Countries Driving Future Population Growth on Voronoi.

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