北京想让英伟达出局,但中国的AI开发商还没准备好
Beijing Wants Nvidia Out But China's AI Developers Aren't Ready

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-wants-nvidia-out-chinas-ai-developers-arent-ready

尽管中国在半导体本土生产方面投入了巨资,但其人工智能产业仍严重依赖英伟达(Nvidia)。造成这种依赖的原因,与其说是硬件性能差距,不如说是英伟达 CUDA 软件生态系统根深蒂固的“惯性”。 由于人工智能实验室多年来一直围绕 CUDA 构建其模型、工具和工作流程,转向华为昇腾(Ascend)处理器等国产替代方案是一个成本高昂且耗时耗力的过程。迁移一个闭源模型可能需要十名工程师花费超过六个月的时间,这会使项目时间和成本至少增加 50%。虽然开源模型更容易移植,但放弃英伟达既有基础设施所带来的技术债仍然是一个重大障碍。 中国在利用国产芯片进行“推理”(即运行已训练好的模型)方面已取得更多成功,并在大规模训练方面也出现了一些零星的成果,例如美团的 LongCat-2.0。然而,更广泛的挑战依然存在:中国虽然能够制造出具有竞争力的硬件,但无法迅速复制让英伟达成为行业标准的庞大软件基础和开发者专业知识。因此,摆脱英伟达的转型过程,既是一个技术难题,更是一项软件工程挑战。

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原文

China has spent years pouring money and political capital into building a homegrown semiconductor industry. Yet when its AI companies need to train their most sophisticated models, many still turn to Nvidia, according to South China Morning Post.

The biggest obstacle may no longer be the chips themselves. It is everything developers have built around them.

Nvidia’s CUDA software has become deeply woven into the way AI labs operate. Models, training tools and internal workflows have been designed around the platform, meaning switching to Chinese hardware can resemble rebuilding part of the factory rather than simply swapping out a machine.

SCMP writes that Huawei’s Ascend processors are among the leading domestic alternatives, but moving an established operation onto them can require substantial engineering work. One researcher estimated that doing so could increase the time and expense of a project by at least 50%.

How painful that transition becomes depends heavily on the model. Widely available open-source models such as DeepSeek are easier because engineers can modify the code and lean on work already done by others. In those cases, migration might require only a few developers and several additional weeks.

Closed systems are another matter. Without access to the underlying source code, engineers may have to spend months rebuilding and optimizing parts of the training process. One industry estimate suggested a difficult migration could occupy roughly 10 engineers for more than half a year.

China has had more success moving the finished products onto domestic infrastructure. Once a model has already been trained, running it for everyday queries — known as inference — is generally much easier to adapt to different hardware.

And domestic chips are beginning to handle training as well. Meituan said its enormous LongCat-2.0 model was developed using a 50,000-chip Chinese computing cluster.

So China’s Nvidia problem is increasingly about inertia as much as technology. Domestic processors may continue closing the performance gap, but Nvidia has something much harder to manufacture quickly: years of software, developer familiarity and infrastructure built around its ecosystem.

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