这一切都只是空头支票吗?
Is it all just vapourware?

原始链接: https://kirahowe.com/2026/aug/8/is-it-all-just-vapourware

作者对当前“代理型人工智能”(agentic AI)软件的爆发浪潮深表怀疑,并认为其中大部分是“虚假宣传”。尽管作者渴望使用能自动化处理软件开发中繁琐行政任务(如需求界定和质量保证)的工具,但他指出目前市场上的产品未能兑现承诺。 核心质疑在于,这些工具是由缺乏真实环境可用性测试的工程师开发的,导致产品普遍存在上手难度大、配置复杂且可靠性差等问题。作者以 ONA 平台为例,描述了一段令人沮丧的经历:该工具在进行基础集成时耗费了大量信用额度,最终带来的不是开发流程的精简,而是更多的“为了工作而工作”。 作者总结认为,这些公司正在自毁营销:如果代理型 AI 真如所宣称的那样有效,开发团队自己理应能交付出极其精致、无瑕的软件。然而现实是,当前的生态系统仍然充斥着大量昂贵且漏洞百出的工具,它们不仅没有帮助,反而阻碍了专业开发人员的工作。

这场 Hacker News 上的讨论聚焦于关于基于大模型的编程智能体(LLM-based coding agents)实际价值的激烈争论。 批评者认为,“十倍生产力”的炒作与可观测数据之间存在巨大差距。他们指出,主流开源项目并未表现出 AI 驱动带来的功能或可靠性激增,且维护者正越来越多地禁止 AI 贡献,因为这些内容往往是低质量的“废料”。一些怀疑论者认为科技行业在很大程度上是表演性的,AI 被用来制造一种进步的幻觉,以推高股价或为职业发展提供正当理由。 反之,支持者认为,对于那些具备正确驾驭能力的人来说,AI 是强大的工具。他们主张 AI 在特定任务(如调试、SIMD 优化和原型设计)上表现出色,而且许多“隐形”的生产力提升正发生在专有项目中,或者被那些觉得没必要公开工作流程的个人所实现。 最终,共识在于:尽管智能体编程并非“虚假宣传”,但它也不是万能药。它显著降低了“一次性”代码的门槛,但在高层架构和可维护性方面仍力不从心,往往将瓶颈从编写代码转移到了审查和修正 AI 生成的内容上。
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原文

August 8, 2026/3 min read

Maybe I’m just too cynical but it’s really starting to feel like more or less all of this new “AI”/agent software is vapourware. I’ve been trying to take this whole “agentic development” thing seriously and there is just so much friction in this ecosystem it’s absolutely insane. It’s very clear that all this stuff is built by engineers who a) have free access to unlimited tokens and b) have no systematic review or QA process for usability testing or dogfooding their products except on the most straightforward of happy paths.

The hard part of software engineering was never writing the code. Now that the cost of writing code has collapsed almost down to the cost of LLM inference, code is ubiquitous. Everybody has a vibe coded startup and many are great ideas but the execution seems to lack any regard whatsoever for the user experience.

I tried ONA recently, for example. In principle it’s a great idea. I’d love to be able to make vague requests for improvements to my apps and have a fully automated end to end process for refining those wishes into clear requirements, reconciling them with all the other open feature requests and planned work, scoping them down to implementable features, then running them through design, testing, implementation, QA, and deployment one by one. Of course I want that, my life as a software engineer would be so much easier. This is roughly what this platform says it is capable of. I think this is a very cool idea so I signed up.

My very first encounter with the app was that I was unable to login on their desktop version at all. Auth is hard, so I can empathize and forgive this. So I tried signing in on the web. It took many clicks and redirects but eventually I was in! I was optimistic, but once I had it wired up to one of my projects, instead of making magical hands-off progress on my todo list it spent nearly my entire $20 worth of “ona compute units”, whatever those are, thrashing and trying to get a hold of the todos from linear just so it could pick one to start.

This only adds more friction between me and my projects, which is literally the opposite of what I want when I pay for developer tooling. I’m not inclined to pay more money to see if it can do a better job next time trying to actually build anything, because I’m very skeptical that it can, and building things isn’t what I want AI to do for me anyway. The thing is, I like writing code. That was the fun part of the job until very recently. I want AI to take on all those other annoying parts of the software development lifecycle that were a distraction from writing code. But so far most of what they do is make more annoying work for me. More integrations to debug, more auth tokens to refresh, more bills to keep track of, more meandering and drawn out descriptions of non-bugs with bogus fix suggestions and misinformed “root cause” analyses. It’s tiresome.

The worst part is that the marketing is so overblown. These companies are themselves the best argument against their own sales pitch. If agentic development actually worked the way any of them say it does, then the people selling it would be the primary beneficiaries. They would be shipping the most polished and useful software on the market. Instead I could barely get past the login screen.

The thing is I think ONA is a good idea. I am evidently willing to pay for this kind of tooling. But I want a version that works without lighting twenty dollar bills on fire.

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