The US suspended avocado inspections in Mexico's Michoacán state after the US Embassy cited a "threat against American interests." Because Michoacán is Mexico's largest avocado-producing region and a top supplier to the US market, any prolonged suspension risks disrupting imports and driving supermarket prices sharply higher.

Michoacán Gov. Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla said on social media that the temporary halt to inspections was intended to safeguard workers following recent arrests linked to extortion, according to AP News.

Michoacán supplies about 75% to 80% of Mexico's avocados, while Mexico accounted for more than 80% of US avocado imports in 2025, valued at over $3 billion.

Supplies from Peru, California, and Mexico's Jalisco state could limit shortages and price increases if the suspension is brief, Rabobank analyst David Magana said. 

Wholesale prices for first-quality Michoacán Hass avocados sold at Mexico City's Central de Abasto have nearly doubled in recent months, signaling tightening conditions in Mexico's domestic supply chain even before the latest inspection disruption.

"These alternative sources should help mitigate supply shortages and limit upward pressure on prices, particularly if the suspension is temporary," Magana noted.

AP said that the western state of Michoacán is home to four narcoterrorist cartels that make money through drug trafficking, extortion, and even the avocado industry.

The duration of the disruption will determine the extent of upward pressure on US wholesale avocado prices and how quickly those increases filter through to supermarket shelves.