Tl;dr: The Fed held rates unchanged, delivering the biggest surprise "non-cut" to the market in decades. Three dissenters wanted a rate-hike, clearly signaling the direction of travel and confirming this decision as a "hawkish hold" though arguably only marginally.
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Since the last FOMC meeting on June 17th (Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair), a lot has happened, with the Iran war re-erupting driving oil prices and the dollar higher, while stocks (momo/semis meltdown), bonds, gold, and bitcoin are all lower...
Both growth and inflation macro data has surprised to the downside...
But, oil's resurgence has pushed rate-hike odds significantly higher...
But, this will still be one of the first Fed meetings in years where the market does not have at least 80% confidence in what the committee will do...
One way or another, this will be the largest "non-cut" surprise in decades.
As we detailed earlier, since 2015, traders have foreseen the Fed’s ultimate rate decision with an average error of 2.4 basis points the day before the central bank’s announcement, according to a note from Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
“The market is set up for a sharper kneejerk response to the FOMC announcement than is typically the case,” Lyngen said.
Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, said he hasn’t felt this uncertain about an imminent Fed rate decision in 20 years, back when Ben Bernanke became Fed chair.
A lack of a track record by Warsh and recent divisions among Fed officials are further clouding the outlook, he said, not ruling out a scenario where Warsh is the one who casts the deciding vote.
“Given the fact that he can push around sort of the median of the committee at the moment, he’s going to decide policy for the next few meetings, and we really have no idea how Kevin Warsh thinks about monetary policy.”
Remember, there are/were 9 members of the committee that saw hikes this year...
Most pundits and sell-side analysts see the central bank leaving rates on hold - especially since last month's inflation reports came well below expectations, and there are no dots or forecasts to update this month.
So, with the market pricing a one-third chance of a hike today, what did The Fed decide?
*FED VOTES 9-3 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE
*FED: HAMMACK, KASHKARI AND LOGAN DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE
*FED REPEATS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING AT A SOLID PACE
*FED REPEATS COMMITTEE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY
*FED REPEATS JOB GAINS HAVE KEPT PACE WITH WORKFORCE
The three dissents in favor of a rate hike clearly show the direction of travel.
And that may prove helpful to Warsh if he aims to tamp down inflation pressures.
Read the redline below (not much changed)...
