美国人口增长预期下调
US Population Growth Prospects Corrected Downwards

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-population-growth-prospects-corrected-downwards

预计美国人口在 2100 年前将持续增长,但增长率已被大幅下调。根据国会预算办公室的数据,2050 年的人口预测值已从(疫情前的)3.89 亿人降至 3.64 亿人。这一变化是由疫情期间居高不下的超额死亡率、出生率下降以及近期净移民人数的波动所导致的。 目前,移民是美国人口增长的主要动力,因为净出生人数持续下降,预计到 2030 年将出现负增长。 除了总量变化外,美国人口老龄化进程也在加快。随着婴儿潮一代步入退休,预计 65 岁及以上人口与劳动年龄人口的比例将从 2026 年的 1:2.7 缩减至 2056 年的 1:2.2。这一人口结构的变化预计将给包括社会保障、医疗保险和医疗补助在内的社会安全网带来巨大的财政压力。

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原文

The population of the United States is projected to keep on climbing beyond 2100. However, the rate of increase that can be expected until 2050 has been significantly corrected downwards over the last couple of years.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, according to the Congressional Budget Office, 349 million people live in the United States in 2026. In 2050, this is expected to have risen to 364 million. In 2019, previous to the coronavirus pandemic, the 2050 forecast had still shown a U.S. population of 389 million.

Infographic: U.S. Population Growth Prospects Corrected Downwards | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

As seen in the data, U.S. population projections were substantially impacted by Covid-19, as the country experienced high excess mortality and projections kept being corrected downwards due to this fact. In the years when the pandemic subsided, forecasts showed higher expected population numbers again, while 2025 and 2026 projections trended lower once more. The latest 2026 forecast reached a new low compared to the previous years' ups-and-downs as U.S. net immigration fell majorly in 2025.

As a reversal of low birth rates seem more and more unlikely, immigration continues to keep U.S. population growth afloat. Immigrants have contributed more to it than net births have since the second year of the coronavirus pandemic. At this point, net births (births minus deaths) took a major hit from which they never fully recovered. The Congressional Budget Office expects U.S. net births to turn negative around 2030, at which point only immigration will be contributing to U.S. population growth.

But the U.S. population is not just growing slower, it is also aging in the process. While in 2026, there are 2.7 working-age Americans (25 to 64 years old) per one American aged 65 or over, this will have changed to 2.2 to 1 in 2056 as the big cohort of baby boomers continues to cross this age threshold. As a result, more strain is expected on safety net system like Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

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