The Ukraine war is quite obviously escalating, especially regarding Ukrainian leaders seeking to "bring the war" to Russian soil, amid nightly drone attacks which have come in the hundreds and even thousands of late.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking to seize on the momentum of repeat drone hits on Russian refinery and energy infrastructure - a reality Russia has suffered over many months, leading to a current fuel crisis spanning dozens of cities and regions, and especially Crimea, which has temporarily halted fuel sales to common citizens altogether this week.
Ukrainian media is touting a new Zelensky plan to ramp up the pressure on Russia over the next 40 days, aimed at "pressuring Russia to end its war".
He has ordered Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU) to launch a new 40-day operation, which also includes "plan for long-range sanctions, medium-range sanctions, and the results achieved by the SBU," Zelensky said on X. He's further calling it an "influence operation."
"For several months in a row, the SBU has demonstrated the highest performance in defending Ukraine’s positions on the front lines through the use of various types of drones," Zelensky said on Thursday evening. According to more of the statement:
I approved a 40-day influence operation for the Service against the aggressor state aimed at compelling it to end the war.
Importantly, for several months in a row, the SSU has demonstrated the highest performance in defending Ukraine’s positions on the front lines through the use of various types of drones. The Center of Special Operations “Alpha” leads in terms of the occupier’s personnel and equipment neutralized.
Earlier, in mid-June, Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov proclaimed "Hell is beginning," for Russia and its military. "Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated," he said at the time.
Ukraine's asymmetric warfare against Russia's much-larger and better armed military machine is in a significantly better position than the status of a year or so ago. Russian forces still have the upper-hand on the front line in the east, but the pain clearly being inflicted on Russia's economy can't be ignored at this point.
This sets up a potential slide into tit-for-tat escalation which could unleash a WW3 scenario. In the meantime this is an interesting-timed warning from Latvia and Poland:
Western intelligence agencies are increasingly concerned that Russia may be preparing a limited hybrid operation targeting NATO's eastern flank, potentially involving the Baltic states or Poland.
Such a move, officials believe, could be an attempt to test the alliance's unity as the war in Ukraine enters a new phase.
According to reporting by The Guardian, intelligence officials from two NATO countries have warned that Moscow is considering a "provocation" rather than a full-scale military attack.
At the moment inside Russia, many regions of Russia seem powerless to stop Ukraine's inbound drone waves, given also that conventional air defenses are set up to defend primarily against larger, faster-moving projectiles like missiles or jets.
President Trump has lately suggested that Ukraine is doing well in the war, or at least much better than it once was. Kiev now feels the pressure to keep this narrative going, also so it can attract more and more weapons and intelligence help. But at some point Russia will feel it necessary to strongly reassert its red lines. This could come in the form of another massive escalation, and against 'decision-making centers'.