氦-3 的成本:地球来源与月球来源的对比
The Cost Of Helium-3: Earth Sources Vs The Moon

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cost-helium-3-earth-sources-vs-moon

随着氦-3 (He-3) 需求的增长,投资者必须权衡三种主要潜在来源的成本、可扩展性和可及性:氚衰变、陆地井以及月球风化层。 目前,基于地球的来源更为务实。**氚衰变**具有一定的可及性,但可扩展性较低,因为其供应受限于政府管控的核储备。**Pulsar Helium** 公司利用现有的钻探技术从陆地井中提取氦-3;这种方法具有中等的可扩展性和可及性,处于折中地位。相反,虽然**月球风化层**因储量巨大而具有最高的长期理论潜力,但它仍然是目前最难获取且成本最高的选项,缺乏开采和运输所需的基础设施。 尽管月球采矿最终可能变得可行,但这目前仍是一个长期愿景。对于近期的投资机会,重点仍在于陆地资源。这些来源的可行性不仅取决于资源的丰富程度,还取决于生产和运输的实际挑战。展望未来,可扩展性和基础设施将成为决定哪种来源能从理论机会成功转变为功能性市场商品的主要驱动力。

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原文

When it comes to Helium-3, the biggest cost divide is between Earth and the Moon. Potential sources range from tritium decay and terrestrial helium wells on Earth to lunar regolith on the Moon. Today, Earth-based sources remain far easier and cheaper to access.

This graphic, created by Visual Capitalist's Cody Good in partnership with Pulsar Helium, compares major potential sources of Helium-3 by cost, scalability, and accessibility. It’s part three of four in the Helium 3: From Theory to Opportunity series, delivering key He-3 insights for investors tracking deep tech, critical minerals, and advanced computing.

The Extraction Cost of Helium-3

Looking at cost alone, Earth-based sources currently have a major advantage over Moon-based He-3.

Source: Pulsar Helium; CRS R41419 (Shea & Morgan, 2010); Niechciał et al., Energies (2020); Thunder Said Energy; NASA OIG; CLPS contract data; USGS Keszthelyi et al. (2023); Smith‑Vaniz et al. (2026); Interlune..

Values reflect order‑of‑magnitude estimates from market pricing (tritium), thermodynamic separation floors (Pulsar), and CLPS‑based transport floors (lunar), using simplified assumptions for grade, throughput, and infrastructure.

Tritium decay is an existing Earth-based source, tied to nuclear weapons stockpiles. The tritium used in warheads decays into He-3 and is recovered during processing; however, supply is limited by nuclear stockpiles and government control. 

Lunar regolith refers to the Moon’s surface material, where He-3 is believed to have accumulated from solar wind particles over time. Extracting He-3 would involve mining the Moon’s surface material, processing it to release gases, separating the He-3, and then returning it to Earth.

Pulsar sits between these two extremes by accessing Earth-based helium deposits using similar drilling technology as used for natural gas wells. The cost estimate is based only on the theoretical energy needed to separate He-3 from a gas stream, and excludes capex, labour, and other operating costs.

Comparing Source Scalability

Cost is only one part of the He-3 supply story. Each source also has a very different path to scale.

  • Tritium Decay: Low scalability, because supply is capped by nuclear stockpiles.
  • Pulsar Helium: Moderate scalability, with the potential to scale through terrestrial wells.
  • Lunar Regolith: High theoretical scalability, based on a large inferred resource on the Moon.

For tritium, without government subsidies, the price grows significantly further reducing scalability and accessibility.

How Easy is Helium-3 to Access?

Accessibility is the other major difference between Earth and lunar sources.

  • Tritium Decay: Moderate accessibility through existing infrastructure, but largely government-controlled.
  • Pulsar Helium: Moderate accessibility, with earth-based sourcing.
  • Lunar Regolith: Very low accessibility, with no current mining or return logistics.

Lunar He-3 may become more competitive over time, but for now, the only sources available are Earth-based.

Helium 3: From Theory to Opportunity

The rising demand for He-3 is putting new pressure on supply. Though lunar mining may one day become part of the long-term story, the near-term opportunity is much closer to home.

For investors, the key question is not just how much He-3 exists, but how realistically it can be produced and delivered. Scalability and accessibility shape how quickly a resource can move from concept to market.

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