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I think this was tongue in cheek but some reasons: * Apple products are status symbols * Induced demand through marketing * Ecosystem lock-in, once you go Apple it's hard to switch back out |
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I’d argue that the iPhone had way more points where it excelled. Web browsing, multi-touch, pinch to zoom, and it even offered a better cellular plan along with it (cheaper than BlackBerry). The Vision Pro doesn’t have a lot of features where it excels. Running apps on it is inferior to using your phone or tablet. Watching movies is inferior to your home television. Productivity is inferior to a standard computer. Games are inferior to existing VR gaming systems like Index or Quest. Reviewers universally describe it as lonely, dystopian. Eyestrain is still a problem, dizziness is still a problem. The iPhone had things about it that were better than existing solutions in a product category (cell phones and smartphones) that was proven and growing. The most optimistic thing you can say about the Vision Pro is that if it were more like a pair of sunglasses and got rid of all the downsides to using it, it might be a really good true AR experience where your brain forgets about the fact that you’ve augmented reality. The problem is, there is no physical hardware technology that is on the horizon that will ever feasibly bring it to that place. Not being able to install apps was completely resolvable by a software update. The hardware problems of the original iPhone like the lack of 3G were resolved within a calendar year with the next model, and the original model had an acceptable level of battery life. If a similar situation to the iPhone was happening we should be seeing a Ming Chi Kuo type of rumor about a Vision Pro coming in 2025 that scuttles the external battery, enables the system to get through an entire Hollywood movie without charging, and solves the problem of the headset messing up your hair and making you interact with the world through ski goggles. These improvements are impossible within the next 10 years or so. There was also way more urgency with smartphones. If Apple had waited one or two years the iPhone would have been snuffed out by competition. We would see a market dominated by other players in the market like Nokia, Microsoft, BlackBerry, or Palm. In contrast, the VR/AR market is literally a contracting one with the only major players being Valve and Meta. The iPhone entered a market that was clearly in an upward trajectory. Would anyone be surprised if Meta announced the shuttering of the Quest division within the next 5 years or so? It has never made money. It has never come close to breaking even, it’s a complete moonshot money sink for Meta. The Quest 3 is selling slower than the Quest 2 did. Microsoft quit on the market before Apple even entered it. Valve hasn't made a follow-up headset and might not ever do so. A reminder of this story from a few years back: https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/13/apples-ar-vr-headset-repor... This is a product that was in development hell that had pressure to ship. A more courageous executive would have seen the struggles at Meta and killed the project years ago. The Apple Car idea was legitimately way better and would have taken less time. |
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He was a pretty huge jerk to his wife and kid even by the standards of the day. He seems to have just not been a very nice guy. Jerks can invent interesting tech, right?
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That is basically what I told him and we parted ways. I don't know what he's doing now but at some point he was shilling some "put your business card on a website!" nonsense.
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I'd rather find someone with marketing and sales experience than anything else. Good sales people can hone in on the parts that part. They want to invest in the things that make selling easier.
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It's not 1 great idea, it's thousands of good ideas, more or less on demand. “Mr. [Founder] is new to the business of having ideas, and so when he has one, he becomes proud of himself for having it. He has not yet had enough ideas to unflinchingly discard those that are beautiful in some aspects and impractical in others; he has not yet acquired confidence in his own ability to think of better ideas as he requires them. What we are seeing here is not Mr. [Founder]'s best idea, I fear, but rather his only idea.” --https://hpmor.com/chapter/78 |
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The problem isn't the ideas. It's the fact that these ideas people want you to validate the idea for them by building out the product. Well then, their idea is basically worthless.
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I am the person described in the requirement list. I brought 2 startups from seed to series A, built a cashflow business of my own, led teams, have 5+ years of runway (yes, in San Francisco), and actively looking for a potential idea + business person. I have worked my ass off for the past 10 years to put myself into this position. I'm doing startups to fulfill the intersection of broad positive externalities + financial reward space, which is possible, and I did it 3 times already. I'm looking for a cofounder+idea because what I can do alone is limited. Over the past 2 years, I have reviewed >1500 pitches, talked with 150+ founders, had in-depth conversation with 10, executed (and failed) with 2. My counterparties are not real. In descending order of frequency: * Tirekickers / wannabes: these people have fantasies about doing a startup... someday, but definitely not just now. * Super excited about * Has no hypothesis about marketing channels, nor any insight on why this particular combination might work * fails on all of market scoping, TAM, customer development, financial model <- 99% mark Rest: limited operational experience, OR self-defeating / low psychological resilience, going nowhere. There is a laundry list on sibling comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39904704) for ticking boxes. My current hypo, is that peeps who check these boxes AND don't have a tech cofounder on their rolodex typically go to angels/VCs, and get a recommendation from them; and therefore will never appear on any markets for cofounders. Curious if this matches your experience. |
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Out of curiosity: are the issues you note here (and the ones in the linked comment) absolute hard stops for you, or more of a checklist of heuristics to take into consideration?
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They're heuristics, but failure on them is extremely predictive, and for the n>25 ventures I had personal experience with, have a fitness of ~99% predictive power. What inspired that question? |
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The saying “Build it and they will come is not true” - how many people on Hacker News built things nobody wanted Having a cofounder that can sell and market, while you build is tremendously valuable |
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Put it succinctly, the Tech Co-Founder the article is looking for is the grunt worker who will lock themselves in the garage doing concept and development work while the Founder CEO wines and dines.
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startups take 3-5 years to get going. there's no way someone legit is going to hang in there and put up with that. become your own technical cofounder. |
1. The founder sees themselves as the ideas person but doesn’t have the situational awareness to recognize that their ideas aren’t that unique.
2. The founder doesn’t understand that the value in a startup isn’t the idea but the ability to execute and build on that idea. For every very successful startup in X space there were 10x more with the same general idea but that failed to execute. The founder wants someone to built it for them but wants credit/equity for having the idea. In 99% of cases the value is created by the builders (technical cofounder) which instantly creates awkwardness of the founder wanting far more equity, credit, and control than their contributions warrant
For the above reasons I’d avoid 99% of asks for a technical co-founder like the plague.